{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "79e0053a-3988-4d11-9865-e63e92b3bd1b",
    "symbol": "UBS",
    "name": "UBS Group AG",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 77.373,
    "architecture_energy": 75.518,
    "architecture_maturity": 43.17,
    "architecture_confidence": 95.141,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 4.72,
        "rotation_up": 67.26,
        "upward_expansion": 90.87,
        "deceleration": 48.99,
        "rotation_down": 22.26,
        "downward_expansion": 15.21
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        52.834667,
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        49.56776,
        47.294143
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 53.76,
    "trend_reference": 45.251223,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.188034,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 33.410256,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.609087,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 11.069081,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.240204,
    "excess_performance": 0.114579,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.188034,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.071369,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.609087,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.141299,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.110691,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.0843,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.240204,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.298969,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 8334077,
      "relative_activity": 0.768671,
      "balance": 3.298969,
      "dry_up": 0.908711,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.039914,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.262138,
      "from_high_reference": -0.025204,
      "from_low_reference": 0.500409
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    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 45.251223,
      "fair_value_reference": 33.410256,
      "structural_low": 35.830221,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 36,
        "median_return": 0.01623,
        "positive_rate": 0.611111,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.611111,
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        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
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        "worst_return": -0.170465,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 12161289.8,
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
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      },
      {
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 70.018245,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "trend": 42.894789,
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        "relative_strength": 9.006044,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.450173,
        "energy": 78.845493,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 11862034.45,
        "trend": 44.098436,
        "fair_value": 32.361118,
        "relative_strength": 11.352454,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 78.034288,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 11810758.55,
        "trend": 44.412547,
        "fair_value": 32.57353,
        "relative_strength": 11.676824,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.157196,
        "energy": 89.381982,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 52.73,
        "volume": 10592946,
        "typical_volume": 11687501.95,
        "trend": 44.647302,
        "fair_value": 32.787902,
        "relative_strength": 14.358236,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.518808,
        "energy": 85.916024,
        "activity_lines": [
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          45.76178
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 51.74,
        "volume": 9325370,
        "typical_volume": 11440591.15,
        "trend": 44.816479,
        "fair_value": 32.990294,
        "relative_strength": 12.529809,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.943165,
        "energy": 82.276993,
        "activity_lines": [
          51.802,
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          46.219373
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 52.74,
        "volume": 11157292,
        "typical_volume": 11138691.4,
        "trend": 45.024584,
        "fair_value": 33.201303,
        "relative_strength": 13.051151,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.144041,
        "energy": 80.816695,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.27,
          51.315636,
          48.835269,
          46.730568
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 53.76,
        "volume": 8334077,
        "typical_volume": 10842188.95,
        "trend": 45.251223,
        "fair_value": 33.410256,
        "relative_strength": 11.069081,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.372864,
        "energy": 75.517993,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}