{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79e1c7cc-1e09-4ba0-b4b0-7e2afdf40f36", "symbol": "KELAS", "name": "Kesla Oyj", "exchange": "HEL", "country": "FI", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "^OMXH25", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.58, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.061, "architecture_energy": 29.166, "architecture_maturity": 36.777, "architecture_confidence": 71.51, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.75, "rotation_up": 29.52, "upward_expansion": 20.57, "deceleration": 64.84, "rotation_down": 43.1, "downward_expansion": 39.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.227333, 4.239091, 4.491667, 4.536237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.19, "trend_reference": 4.330667, "distance_from_trend": -0.032482, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.763748, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113252, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.261822, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.507194, "excess_performance": 0.413205, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032482, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136062, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113252, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.289334, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.042618, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.344537, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.507194, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.437624, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7906, "relative_activity": 0.296908, "balance": 2.437624, "dry_up": 0.894263, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07215, "annualized_volatility": 0.853361, "from_high_reference": -0.466921, "from_low_reference": 0.837719 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.330667, "fair_value_reference": 3.763748, "structural_low": 2.68, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.031543, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.028158, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.187629, "worst_return": -0.297578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.156815, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.122729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162887, "worst_return": -0.284333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.162179, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.104749, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.257732, "worst_return": -0.29064, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.089151, 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"color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.042105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.282609, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077927, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.197044, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018868, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 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"modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -20.559727, "energy": 56.300512, "activity_lines": [ 4.223333, 4.386, 4.70519, 4.529183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 4.25, "volume": 53905, "typical_volume": 65543.0, "trend": 4.194333, "fair_value": 3.768606, "relative_strength": 8.228567, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.178807, "energy": 45.830127, "activity_lines": [ 4.226667, 4.321455, 4.654524, 4.535462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 4.25, "volume": 25609, "typical_volume": 64498.75, "trend": 4.237333, "fair_value": 3.767008, "relative_strength": 6.44894, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.082799, "energy": 44.210683, "activity_lines": [ 4.225333, 4.275273, 4.601048, 4.539054 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 4.29, "volume": 7829, "typical_volume": 50955.1, "trend": 4.286333, "fair_value": 3.766231, "relative_strength": 8.273515, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.656143, "energy": 28.828662, "activity_lines": [ 4.238667, 4.258, 4.549238, 4.542452 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 4.19, "volume": 7906, "typical_volume": 26627.8, "trend": 4.330667, "fair_value": 3.763748, "relative_strength": 4.261822, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.060523, "energy": 29.166282, "activity_lines": [ 4.227333, 4.239091, 4.491667, 4.536237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }