{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79ee96e7-b3c0-40a1-9b94-8f50267f0f85", "symbol": "GPEQ", "name": "VanEck Global Listed Private Equity ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 67.708, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 45.273, "architecture_energy": 50.398, "architecture_maturity": 7.166, "architecture_confidence": 77.518, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.56, "rotation_up": 69.06, "upward_expansion": 41.71, "deceleration": 26.79, "rotation_down": 14.15, "downward_expansion": 25.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.136666, 18.773967, 18.565746, 18.609593 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.84, "trend_reference": 19.084613, "distance_from_trend": 0.039581, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.200904, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.064191, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.748926, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.020731, "excess_performance": -0.084436, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039581, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076308, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.064191, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053765, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107489, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075589, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020731, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.840334, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143953, "relative_activity": 2.692212, "balance": 1.840334, "dry_up": 1.692126, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029164, "annualized_volatility": 0.200827, "from_high_reference": -0.226209, "from_low_reference": 0.153496 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.084613, "fair_value_reference": 21.200904, "structural_low": 17.199891, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.041752, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.034894, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.048826, "worst_return": -0.145868, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.082285, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.117083, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068146, "worst_return": -0.232715, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.115833, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.127873, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.005697, "worst_return": -0.22597, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022901, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069434, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02781, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008765, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063753, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031001, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010794, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074199, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.086377, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04147, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.988312, "volume": 64913, "typical_volume": 15361.3, "trend": 14.554259, "fair_value": 14.297191, "relative_strength": 14.416879, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"energy": 15.620046, "activity_lines": [ 18.450435, 18.32208, 18.336342, 18.654572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.51, "volume": 39484, "typical_volume": 45972.0, "trend": 19.35928, "fair_value": 21.159327, "relative_strength": -13.13354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.490393, "energy": 15.126869, "activity_lines": [ 18.511376, 18.369105, 18.355017, 18.589156 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.049999, "volume": 124870, "typical_volume": 49026.75, "trend": 19.213947, "fair_value": 21.178344, "relative_strength": -12.067937, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.931558, "energy": 19.082826, "activity_lines": [ 18.734666, 18.50721, 18.426738, 18.569202 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.84, "volume": 143953, "typical_volume": 53470.15, "trend": 19.084613, "fair_value": 21.200904, "relative_strength": -10.748926, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.272724, "energy": 50.397607, "activity_lines": [ 19.136666, 18.773967, 18.565746, 18.609593 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }