{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79f5ac88-4c46-45f7-bc6e-1324a8ed5ff7", "symbol": "688636", "name": "Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.656, "architecture_energy": 89.979, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.667, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.97, "rotation_up": 8.03, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 79.71, "downward_expansion": 95.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.999334, 27.111637, 32.677956, 35.855266 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.700001, "trend_reference": 40.334557, "distance_from_trend": -0.511585, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.20748, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.275934, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.475843, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.589131, "excess_performance": -0.545927, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.511585, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051788, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.275934, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.022935, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.484758, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.597895, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.589131, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.030354, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52066457, "relative_activity": 1.881769, "balance": 1.030354, "dry_up": 2.130204, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.283327, "annualized_volatility": 0.979271, "from_high_reference": -0.680531, "from_low_reference": 0.20122 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.334557, "fair_value_reference": 27.20748, "structural_low": 16.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.072055, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.074633, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.316492, "worst_return": -0.51488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.191146, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.172568, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.723185, "worst_return": -0.2738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.263917, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.134229, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.114301, "worst_return": -0.409508, "sufficient": false 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.077752, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076394, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031545, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.240335, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.298043, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-12", 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"relative_strength": -27.94992, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.247048, "energy": 50.567952, "activity_lines": [ 35.179334, 36.249273, 38.580541, 40.470626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.790001, "volume": 86291109, "typical_volume": 23579504.9, "trend": 41.947157, "fair_value": 27.234041, "relative_strength": -55.492109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.663948, "energy": 82.239, "activity_lines": [ 28.690667, 32.536364, 36.358737, 38.798472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.73, "volume": 64683273, "typical_volume": 25834767.85, "trend": 41.102537, "fair_value": 27.208534, "relative_strength": -52.792346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.204542, "energy": 94.493286, "activity_lines": [ 23.954, 29.436182, 34.364516, 37.236075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.700001, "volume": 52066457, "typical_volume": 27668891.35, "trend": 40.334557, "fair_value": 27.20748, "relative_strength": -48.475843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.656197, "energy": 89.979116, "activity_lines": [ 20.999334, 27.111637, 32.677956, 35.855266 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }