{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79f5ef71-e765-4dd3-9a9d-d9b464d50444", "symbol": "FRMEP", "name": "First Merchants Corporation Depository Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.576, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.051, "architecture_energy": 13.53, "architecture_maturity": 29.369, "architecture_confidence": 78.737, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.93, "rotation_up": 25.94, "upward_expansion": 20.26, "deceleration": 33.95, "rotation_down": 38.77, "downward_expansion": 58.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.226103, 25.204923, 25.227949, 25.258224 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 25.15, "trend_reference": 25.274869, "distance_from_trend": -0.00494, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.989042, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.093999, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.189299, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.009747, "excess_performance": -0.1972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00494, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003448, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.093999, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041683, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121893, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015338, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009747, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.277142, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5986, "relative_activity": 0.883536, "balance": 0.277142, "dry_up": 1.486594, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01944, "annualized_volatility": 0.078182, "from_high_reference": -0.05119, "from_low_reference": 0.062177 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.274869, "fair_value_reference": 22.989042, "structural_low": 24.556763, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.00368, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.008462, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.056129, "worst_return": -0.005417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.084122, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.00649, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084122, "worst_return": 0.084122, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.107243, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.105137, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.107243, "worst_return": 0.107243, "sufficient": false }, { 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25.250424, 25.252428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.328804, "volume": 376, "typical_volume": 5359.55, "trend": 25.222347, "fair_value": 22.853246, "relative_strength": -12.91338, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.900168, "energy": 4.502287, "activity_lines": [ 25.183513, 25.159289, 25.252925, 25.260669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.142274, "volume": 605, "typical_volume": 5337.1, "trend": 25.228011, "fair_value": 22.887921, "relative_strength": -9.532586, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.975677, "energy": 5.128864, "activity_lines": [ 25.177362, 25.151454, 25.23775, 25.255503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.476064, "volume": 1382, "typical_volume": 5355.2, "trend": 25.246652, "fair_value": 22.922401, "relative_strength": -6.629574, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.655281, "energy": 8.524513, "activity_lines": [ 25.282989, 25.212449, 25.255504, 25.271507 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.15, "volume": 32314, "typical_volume": 6686.65, "trend": 25.259234, "fair_value": 22.955682, "relative_strength": -8.025536, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.46774, "energy": 5.56429, "activity_lines": [ 25.251531, 25.209141, 25.242578, 25.265271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.15, "volume": 5986, "typical_volume": 6775.05, "trend": 25.274869, "fair_value": 22.989042, "relative_strength": -12.189299, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.051463, "energy": 13.530141, "activity_lines": [ 25.226103, 25.204923, 25.227949, 25.258224 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }