{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79f8005c-d649-4248-838a-5c14296e081a", "symbol": "ITX", "name": "Itaconix plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.202, "architecture_energy": 63.357, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 61.648, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.02, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.95, "rotation_down": 49.86, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.612667, 1.429182, 28.952167, 49.826462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.725, "trend_reference": 74.621167, "distance_from_trend": -0.976883, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 132.42875, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.986974, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.290803, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.985625, "excess_performance": -1.03686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.976883, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.332747, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.986974, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.707947, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.982908, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.876187, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.985625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.262032, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66664, "relative_activity": 0.738583, "balance": 1.262032, "dry_up": 3.159842, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 5.948186, "annualized_volatility": 6.318898, "from_high_reference": -0.987222, "from_low_reference": 0.61215 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 74.621167, "fair_value_reference": 132.42875, "structural_low": 1.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.026415, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.018943, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 1.054902, "worst_return": -0.410257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.039998, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.072475, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.265306, "worst_return": -0.295122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.035678, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.033383, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.361789, "worst_return": -0.385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.019608, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084967, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.233962, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171687, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.070833, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.207547, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111628, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.106383, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.519824, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-05-12", "close": 245.0, "volume": 36685, "typical_volume": 41994.55, "trend": 237.352235, "fair_value": 246.150038, "relative_strength": -4.250322, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.505, "volume": 518231, "typical_volume": 65071.35, "trend": 85.205833, "fair_value": 137.044391, "relative_strength": -98.5926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.624463, "energy": 88.717903, "activity_lines": [ 1.233, 12.586091, 46.973738, 65.314484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.47, "volume": 337121, "typical_volume": 79243.1, "trend": 81.6715, "fair_value": 135.579455, "relative_strength": -98.604432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.200792, "energy": 68.245257, "activity_lines": [ 1.328333, 6.904727, 40.434333, 59.912172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.765, "volume": 218805, "typical_volume": 89680.4, "trend": 78.147, "fair_value": 134.020256, "relative_strength": -98.295701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.702929, "energy": 67.378837, "activity_lines": [ 1.499, 3.232091, 34.439833, 54.756914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.725, "volume": 66664, "typical_volume": 90259.35, "trend": 74.621167, "fair_value": 132.42875, "relative_strength": -98.290803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.202372, "energy": 63.356652, "activity_lines": [ 1.612667, 1.429182, 28.952167, 49.826462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }