{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79f8c0d9-f1c4-4eb4-9631-cbd52ac5b934", "symbol": "002511", "name": "C&S Paper Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.771, "architecture_energy": 23.901, "architecture_maturity": 81.124, "architecture_confidence": 73.109, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.86, "rotation_up": 28.09, "upward_expansion": 21.39, "deceleration": 46.88, "rotation_down": 21.04, "downward_expansion": 55.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.219333, 7.085818, 7.285941, 7.56198 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.27, "trend_reference": 7.87268, "distance_from_trend": -0.076553, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.954345, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.086034, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.779838, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.103322, "excess_performance": -0.110722, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076553, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046562, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.086034, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079966, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127798, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032387, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.103322, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.482418, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59261759, "relative_activity": 0.927465, "balance": 0.482418, "dry_up": 1.180139, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055945, "annualized_volatility": 0.250792, "from_high_reference": -0.209954, "from_low_reference": 0.106545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.87268, "fair_value_reference": 7.954345, "structural_low": 6.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.011364, "positive_rate": 0.459459, "directional_follow_through": 0.540541, "median_excess_return": -0.007851, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.206653, "worst_return": -0.203029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.057047, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.063623, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.159195, "worst_return": -0.279866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.111842, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.173639, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.151286, "worst_return": -0.294841, "sufficient": true }, { 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6.976, 6.954909, 7.344741, 7.633977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.47, "volume": 76543687, "typical_volume": 65378366.0, "trend": 7.914199, "fair_value": 7.975503, "relative_strength": -6.09278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.934389, "energy": 31.443977, "activity_lines": [ 7.160667, 7.038727, 7.32183, 7.603542 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.27, "volume": 59261759, "typical_volume": 63896474.55, "trend": 7.87268, "fair_value": 7.954345, "relative_strength": -12.779838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.770955, "energy": 23.900997, "activity_lines": [ 7.219333, 7.085818, 7.285941, 7.56198 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }