{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79fdc880-858a-4756-8da3-83c4a1522580", "symbol": "QLTA", "name": "ISHARES TRUST AAA - A RATED CORP BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.723, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.84, "architecture_energy": 71.303, "architecture_maturity": 4.915, "architecture_confidence": 83.0, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.16, "rotation_up": 8.92, "upward_expansion": 16.12, "deceleration": 37.08, "rotation_down": 74.84, "downward_expansion": 91.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.511469, 46.745306, 46.924035, 47.010293 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 46.6, "trend_reference": 47.139382, "distance_from_trend": -0.011442, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.725753, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041905, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.911436, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.01761, "excess_performance": -0.143235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011442, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001763, "read": "Falling" 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46.24708, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.006015, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.012197, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.052676, "worst_return": -0.052071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007013, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.029266, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.087422, "worst_return": -0.08432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.02002, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020892, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.044446, "worst_return": -0.098716, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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-55.830724, "energy": 21.640995, "activity_lines": [ 47.118609, 47.134543, 47.139081, 47.188059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.793402, "volume": 1405402, "typical_volume": 2054573.05, "trend": 47.224105, "fair_value": 44.627265, "relative_strength": -8.892464, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.223016, "energy": 41.121648, "activity_lines": [ 46.982235, 47.075525, 47.104719, 47.159505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.330249, "volume": 1115671, "typical_volume": 2030442.35, "trend": 47.190739, "fair_value": 44.65732, "relative_strength": -9.011948, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.666369, "energy": 66.663766, "activity_lines": [ 46.724982, 46.940549, 47.031508, 47.101837 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.335229, "volume": 812495, "typical_volume": 1993019.05, "trend": 47.163428, "fair_value": 44.689778, "relative_strength": -9.660986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.534504, "energy": 75.391752, "activity_lines": [ 46.535099, 46.813588, 46.964202, 47.046643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.6, "volume": 1002755, "typical_volume": 1988357.65, "trend": 47.139382, "fair_value": 44.725753, "relative_strength": -11.911436, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.83968, "energy": 71.303104, "activity_lines": [ 46.511469, 46.745306, 46.924035, 47.010293 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }