{ "ticker": { "uuid": "79fe5c0e-6dc1-4df4-ab39-1ab57ef4868d", "symbol": "JHHY", "name": "JOHN HANCOCK HIGH YIELD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.633, "architecture_energy": 25.71, "architecture_maturity": 9.04, "architecture_confidence": 73.589, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.01, "rotation_up": 37.93, "upward_expansion": 66.07, "deceleration": 86.42, "rotation_down": 25.84, "downward_expansion": 8.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.473895, 25.46996, 25.456057, 25.407981 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.5903, "trend_reference": 25.370915, "distance_from_trend": 0.008647, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.981374, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.067091, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.523081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.007205, "excess_performance": -0.11842, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008647, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005116, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.067091, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002554, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00568, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007205, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.018712, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32190, "relative_activity": 0.428591, "balance": 3.018712, "dry_up": 1.348528, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007396, "annualized_volatility": 0.042065, "from_high_reference": -0.00662, "from_low_reference": 0.048705 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.370915, "fair_value_reference": 23.981374, "structural_low": 24.801995, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.014012, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.054892, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.014012, "worst_return": -0.014012, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.005038, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.054387, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.005038, "worst_return": -0.005038, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 68945.25, "trend": 25.35704, "fair_value": 23.955265, "relative_strength": -6.810737, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.027027, "energy": 11.757372, "activity_lines": [ 25.424804, 25.453415, 25.429197, 25.388799 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.4272, "volume": 130755, "typical_volume": 74394.25, "trend": 25.363136, "fair_value": 23.967739, "relative_strength": -7.217193, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.636558, "energy": 13.414619, "activity_lines": [ 25.422696, 25.447239, 25.43599, 25.393325 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.5903, "volume": 32190, "typical_volume": 75106.55, "trend": 25.370915, "fair_value": 23.981374, "relative_strength": -9.523081, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.632886, "energy": 25.709604, "activity_lines": [ 25.473895, 25.46996, 25.456057, 25.407981 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }