{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a017dd1-e246-4c1a-8bf5-942b460e19f1", "symbol": "ZMI", "name": "Zinc of Ireland NL", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.801, "architecture_energy": 26.049, "architecture_maturity": 24.307, "architecture_confidence": 65.846, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.97, "rotation_up": 55.94, "upward_expansion": 54.06, "deceleration": 58.47, "rotation_down": 11.48, "downward_expansion": 23.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.016733, 0.016091, 0.016319, 0.01634 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.018, "trend_reference": 0.015967, "distance_from_trend": 0.127349, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.01337, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.346305, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 30.039594, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.285714, "excess_performance": 0.222009, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.127349, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137767, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.346305, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044925, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.300396, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220567, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.285714, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.002168, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8964800, "relative_activity": 1.503459, "balance": 3.002168, "dry_up": 2.341603, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102564, "annualized_volatility": 0.706504, "from_high_reference": -0.142857, "from_low_reference": 1.571429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.015967, "fair_value_reference": 0.01337, "structural_low": 0.012, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.017241, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": -0.011179, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.062998, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.051065, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.444444, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.144817, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.106699, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.433333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.280702, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.206953, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.125, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.307692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.7, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058824, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.019, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 604238.6, "trend": 0.025267, "fair_value": 0.044577, "relative_strength": -36.137048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.893252, "energy": 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0.016052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.015, "volume": 12522985, "typical_volume": 4412234.5, "trend": 0.015267, "fair_value": 0.013415, "relative_strength": 18.551609, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.854551, "energy": 23.034132, "activity_lines": [ 0.0152, 0.015364, 0.016229, 0.016045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.016, "volume": 3936145, "typical_volume": 4409264.25, "trend": 0.015467, "fair_value": 0.013396, "relative_strength": 25.297618, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.090623, "energy": 7.204098, "activity_lines": [ 0.015467, 0.015418, 0.016167, 0.016092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.017, "volume": 30425940, "typical_volume": 5637138.5, "trend": 0.0157, "fair_value": 0.013376, "relative_strength": 28.449559, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.512829, "energy": 6.532562, "activity_lines": [ 0.016, 0.015673, 0.01619, 0.016191 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.018, "volume": 8964800, "typical_volume": 5962782.0, "trend": 0.015967, "fair_value": 0.01337, "relative_strength": 30.039594, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.801254, "energy": 26.049111, "activity_lines": [ 0.016733, 0.016091, 0.016319, 0.01634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }