{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a0bebb5-2f63-4be8-acad-77e0a4730aa8", "symbol": "TIPX", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR BLOOMBERG 1-10 YEAR TIPS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.89, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.428, "architecture_energy": 61.79, "architecture_maturity": 6.706, "architecture_confidence": 92.548, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.45, "rotation_up": 16.06, "upward_expansion": 13.23, "deceleration": 40.66, "rotation_down": 62.39, "downward_expansion": 86.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.596166, 18.626178, 18.698895, 18.740127 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.61, "trend_reference": 18.775778, "distance_from_trend": -0.008829, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.782695, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046523, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.581397, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.009402, "excess_performance": -0.135027, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008829, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000467, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.046523, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025048, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115814, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014891, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009402, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.895812, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4767878, "relative_activity": 2.128503, "balance": 0.895812, "dry_up": 0.992204, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005707, "annualized_volatility": 0.030805, "from_high_reference": -0.02219, "from_low_reference": 0.009889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.775778, "fair_value_reference": 17.782695, "structural_low": 18.522247, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.011848, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.018427, "worst_return": -0.026988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.003616, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.012119, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.025405, "worst_return": -0.014114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.028324, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.056402, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.028892, "worst_return": -0.010549, 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1142248, "typical_volume": 2065812.05, "trend": 18.787282, "fair_value": 17.728947, "relative_strength": -10.641826, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.567082, "energy": 59.249373, "activity_lines": [ 18.661466, 18.706307, 18.770429, 18.787861 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.651287, "volume": 1181635, "typical_volume": 2083590.3, "trend": 18.786687, "fair_value": 17.742476, "relative_strength": -8.737883, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.492751, "energy": 64.854052, "activity_lines": [ 18.64761, 18.690412, 18.755324, 18.779087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.552025, "volume": 1815844, "typical_volume": 2118518.7, "trend": 18.78213, "fair_value": 17.755599, "relative_strength": -8.430984, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.139811, "energy": 76.086795, "activity_lines": [ 18.609363, 18.660243, 18.732157, 18.763948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.581804, "volume": 1124851, "typical_volume": 2102088.5, "trend": 18.778892, "fair_value": 17.768826, "relative_strength": -8.951712, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.454526, "energy": 72.908694, "activity_lines": [ 18.592392, 18.639464, 18.713553, 18.751023 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.61, "volume": 4767878, "typical_volume": 2240014.4, "trend": 18.775778, "fair_value": 17.782695, "relative_strength": -11.581397, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.427582, "energy": 61.789868, "activity_lines": [ 18.596166, 18.626178, 18.698895, 18.740127 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }