{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a121f99-85f3-4735-92c3-bd789d8303a6", "symbol": "300458", "name": "Allwinner Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.212, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.045, "architecture_energy": 13.789, "architecture_maturity": 42.325, "architecture_confidence": 75.784, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.54, "rotation_up": 31.39, "upward_expansion": 61.98, "deceleration": 84.94, "rotation_down": 29.89, "downward_expansion": 16.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.033333, 36.546182, 35.853903, 35.104603 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 34.599998, "trend_reference": 34.833161, "distance_from_trend": -0.006694, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.560832, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.353633, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.656966, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.093136, "excess_performance": -0.100535, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006694, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009773, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.353633, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163246, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06657, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084092, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093136, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.150261, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 390041190, "relative_activity": 1.670703, "balance": 1.150261, "dry_up": 2.169406, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154046, "annualized_volatility": 0.639167, "from_high_reference": -0.252932, "from_low_reference": 0.28023 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.833161, "fair_value_reference": 25.560832, "structural_low": 27.026392, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.039059, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.032453, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.151985, "worst_return": -0.172335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003133, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.022091, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.298001, "worst_return": -0.185589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.125, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.012883, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.397963, "worst_return": 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35.135323, 34.763985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.169998, "volume": 475307971, "typical_volume": 168795513.5, "trend": 34.642976, "fair_value": 25.209435, "relative_strength": -1.764753, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.103768, "energy": 55.719235, "activity_lines": [ 37.622666, 36.386363, 35.251479, 34.797254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.990002, "volume": 595389906, "typical_volume": 193203918.5, "trend": 34.882519, "fair_value": 25.361103, "relative_strength": 13.93753, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.436654, "energy": 58.216935, "activity_lines": [ 38.727333, 37.318182, 35.922675, 35.206739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.540001, "volume": 565132699, "typical_volume": 217534565.65, "trend": 34.840588, "fair_value": 25.459083, "relative_strength": -5.017716, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.973155, "energy": 22.637023, "activity_lines": [ 36.992, 36.807455, 35.843458, 35.120125 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.599998, "volume": 390041190, "typical_volume": 233459254.2, "trend": 34.833161, "fair_value": 25.560832, "relative_strength": -6.656966, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.04457, "energy": 13.789194, "activity_lines": [ 36.033333, 36.546182, 35.853903, 35.104603 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }