{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a1a49c1-325b-4c90-8b1d-c8f918197267", "symbol": "NICL", "name": "Nichols plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 78.915, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.109, "architecture_energy": 56.153, "architecture_maturity": 55.998, "architecture_confidence": 56.542, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.75, "rotation_up": 66.68, "upward_expansion": 58.64, "deceleration": 24.3, "rotation_down": 22.45, "downward_expansion": 23.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 1008.144467, 984.381955, 968.374707, 964.649018 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1040.0, "trend_reference": 967.461222, "distance_from_trend": 0.074978, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1095.028575, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.050253, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.49896, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.024829, "excess_performance": -0.026406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074978, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005909, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.050253, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089416, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05499, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.14879, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024829, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.51589, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 205181, "relative_activity": 1.275061, "balance": 1.51589, "dry_up": 1.255641, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051357, "annualized_volatility": 0.280264, "from_high_reference": -0.184155, "from_low_reference": 0.182047 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 967.461222, "fair_value_reference": 1095.028575, "structural_low": 879.829293, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.004784, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": 0.006574, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.148437, "worst_return": -0.158392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.043849, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.04229, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.160855, "worst_return": -0.146902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.101662, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.098569, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.233712, "worst_return": -0.190373, 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8.921162, "activity_lines": [ 950.80888, 952.371595, 950.38325, 954.795205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 961.4123, "volume": 139341, "typical_volume": 171596.95, "trend": 961.652398, "fair_value": 1094.821445, "relative_strength": -12.51654, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.955698, "energy": 10.436731, "activity_lines": [ 954.12892, 954.459996, 951.627799, 954.774552 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1039.8949, "volume": 338932, "typical_volume": 171308.2, "trend": 965.188269, "fair_value": 1094.956686, "relative_strength": -5.807502, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.668593, "energy": 39.311037, "activity_lines": [ 983.649007, 970.246829, 960.091698, 959.822455 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1040.0, "volume": 205181, "typical_volume": 160918.55, "trend": 967.461222, "fair_value": 1095.028575, "relative_strength": -5.49896, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.109309, "energy": 56.15306, "activity_lines": [ 1008.144467, 984.381955, 968.374707, 964.649018 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }