{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a1d3407-cfa1-4c0e-abcc-ded93c0b1a65", "symbol": "FTHF", "name": "FIRST TRUST EXCH TRADED FUND 2 EMERGING MKTS HUMAN FLOURISHING ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.625, "architecture_energy": 16.336, "architecture_maturity": 66.347, "architecture_confidence": 77.456, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.41, "rotation_up": 16.76, "upward_expansion": 45.02, "deceleration": 87.86, "rotation_down": 41.23, "downward_expansion": 30.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.753467, 45.903348, 45.981133, 44.579932 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 45.4954, "trend_reference": 42.645339, "distance_from_trend": 0.066832, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.445316, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.657674, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.772623, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.169645, "excess_performance": 0.04402, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066832, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130975, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.657674, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189248, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.097726, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227945, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.169645, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.755362, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54612, "relative_activity": 0.883799, "balance": 0.755362, "dry_up": 0.965492, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083299, "annualized_volatility": 0.410032, "from_high_reference": -0.142362, "from_low_reference": 0.75405 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.645339, "fair_value_reference": 27.445316, "structural_low": 35.01, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.179257, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.053329, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.179257, "worst_return": 0.179257, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.358136, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.205542, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.358136, "worst_return": 0.358136, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.57471, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.193252, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.030159, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039182, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-11-03", "close": 19.522515, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 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"trend": 42.645339, "fair_value": 27.445316, "relative_strength": 9.772623, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.625058, "energy": 16.335715, "activity_lines": [ 44.753467, 45.903348, 45.981133, 44.579932 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }