{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a21f9ef-b986-456f-b915-fd2891638292", "symbol": "MP", "name": "MP Materials Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.615, "architecture_energy": 67.388, "architecture_maturity": 16.513, "architecture_confidence": 85.181, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.69, "rotation_up": 10.08, "upward_expansion": 14.69, "deceleration": 37.7, "rotation_down": 72.73, "downward_expansion": 90.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.841333, 48.778909, 53.795333, 55.135097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 51.11, "trend_reference": 57.196667, "distance_from_trend": -0.106416, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.034744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.501701, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.910668, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.165687, "excess_performance": -0.291312, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106416, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03459, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.501701, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.644827, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.249107, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.308725, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165687, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.772423, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43517228, "relative_activity": 1.49672, "balance": 0.772423, "dry_up": 1.147821, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16762, "annualized_volatility": 0.579066, "from_high_reference": -0.490177, "from_low_reference": 0.351759 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.196667, "fair_value_reference": 34.034744, "structural_low": 37.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.045501, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.017498, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.337653, "worst_return": -0.221469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.008732, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.120918, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.63205, "worst_return": -0.329068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.128132, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.212886, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.96598, "worst_return": -0.350204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.736254, "energy": 65.777626, "activity_lines": [ 50.91, 54.547455, 57.264714, 57.729183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.3, "volume": 27626066, "typical_volume": 27754861.05, "trend": 58.013, "fair_value": 33.739679, "relative_strength": -37.862137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.489284, "energy": 74.949466, "activity_lines": [ 46.974, 51.643818, 55.715714, 56.624946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.37, "volume": 35829544, "typical_volume": 28375110.6, "trend": 57.559667, "fair_value": 33.855128, "relative_strength": -37.790715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.121463, "energy": 77.290101, "activity_lines": [ 44.366667, 49.116, 54.254, 55.551204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.11, "volume": 43517228, "typical_volume": 29075065.55, "trend": 57.196667, "fair_value": 34.034744, "relative_strength": -24.910668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.614718, "energy": 67.388062, "activity_lines": [ 45.841333, 48.778909, 53.795333, 55.135097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }