{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a2599d4-04bc-4069-a0e7-15469ee48e02", "symbol": "AIPE", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY II EUR Credit PAB Opportunities UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.285, "architecture_energy": 35.947, "architecture_maturity": 36.281, "architecture_confidence": 80.948, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.26, "rotation_up": 25.83, "upward_expansion": 55.82, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 49.52, "downward_expansion": 28.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.538733, 11.569645, 11.557686, 11.54256 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.5755, "trend_reference": 11.535033, "distance_from_trend": 0.003508, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.254203, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.028549, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.141691, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000949, "excess_performance": -0.054261, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003508, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002194, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.028549, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003956, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061417, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048537, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000949, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.20324, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1289, "relative_activity": 0.551621, "balance": 6.20324, "dry_up": 0.765379, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003369, "annualized_volatility": 0.029133, "from_high_reference": -0.006523, "from_low_reference": 0.023203 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.535033, "fair_value_reference": 11.254203, "structural_low": 11.313, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.002581, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.096499, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.002581, "worst_return": 0.002581, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.016186, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.082373, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016186, "worst_return": 0.016186, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001217, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000173, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003281, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004031, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002806, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007467, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007529, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-04-05", "close": 10.714, "volume": 1334, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.457018, "energy": 94.024107, "activity_lines": [ 11.608733, 11.575136, 11.530712, 11.526812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.6515, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2071.45, "trend": 11.5249, "fair_value": 11.241504, "relative_strength": -3.907084, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.532854, "energy": 93.614619, "activity_lines": [ 11.6268, 11.594345, 11.543231, 11.535258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.6515, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2071.45, "trend": 11.530717, "fair_value": 11.24495, "relative_strength": -1.886671, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.853767, "energy": 92.415212, "activity_lines": [ 11.640233, 11.610055, 11.55544, 11.543426 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.5645, "volume": 865, "typical_volume": 2114.7, "trend": 11.5334, "fair_value": 11.247613, "relative_strength": -2.524297, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.750391, "energy": 87.171268, "activity_lines": [ 11.620033, 11.607055, 11.559055, 11.545605 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.489, "volume": 5000, "typical_volume": 2359.6, "trend": 11.533567, "fair_value": 11.249607, "relative_strength": -3.438057, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.019295, "energy": 24.537981, "activity_lines": [ 11.574133, 11.589018, 11.555583, 11.542741 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.489, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2359.6, "trend": 11.533733, "fair_value": 11.25157, "relative_strength": -4.788115, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.926135, "energy": 29.644343, "activity_lines": [ 11.5366, 11.571045, 11.552381, 11.539866 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.5755, "volume": 1289, "typical_volume": 2336.75, "trend": 11.535033, "fair_value": 11.254203, "relative_strength": -6.141691, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.28477, "energy": 35.946758, "activity_lines": [ 11.538733, 11.569645, 11.557686, 11.54256 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }