{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a261990-5c49-47e0-911e-d34f14a06f13", "symbol": "VRS", "name": "Veris Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.716, "architecture_energy": 18.974, "architecture_maturity": 22.181, "architecture_confidence": 66.181, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.23, "rotation_up": 27.85, "upward_expansion": 10.07, "deceleration": 31.39, "rotation_down": 37.59, "downward_expansion": 67.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.056533, 0.056618, 0.056686, 0.057402 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.055, "trend_reference": 0.059633, "distance_from_trend": -0.077697, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.05758, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.044812, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.347122, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.214286, "excess_performance": -0.277991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077697, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077835, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.044812, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036537, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193471, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11702, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.214286, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.916654, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 196381, "relative_activity": 0.531892, "balance": 0.916654, "dry_up": 0.612936, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095105, "annualized_volatility": 0.532686, "from_high_reference": -0.302385, "from_low_reference": 0.1 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.059633, "fair_value_reference": 0.05758, "structural_low": 0.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.000229, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.1875, "worst_return": -0.160006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.054802, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.06422, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.49999, "worst_return": -0.285706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.076389, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.04342, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.541085, "worst_return": -0.35714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005044, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011606, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.498288, "worst_return": -0.314282, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142853, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.183339, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.139992, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04629, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100006, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041674, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.099986, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.169114, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.969553, "energy": 5.777056, "activity_lines": [ 0.057133, 0.057091, 0.056848, 0.057978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.057, "volume": 86701, "typical_volume": 371059.35, "trend": 0.0602, "fair_value": 0.057735, "relative_strength": -14.023757, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.1805, "energy": 11.842698, "activity_lines": [ 0.057267, 0.057073, 0.056857, 0.057738 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.055, "volume": 196381, "typical_volume": 369212.4, "trend": 0.059633, "fair_value": 0.05758, "relative_strength": -19.347122, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.716499, "energy": 18.973776, "activity_lines": [ 0.056533, 0.056618, 0.056686, 0.057402 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }