{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a2a776c-4c5e-4fd0-9545-8e0e5e3fb7c5", "symbol": "PL3", "name": "Patagonia Lithium Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.266, "architecture_energy": 23.569, "architecture_maturity": 23.858, "architecture_confidence": 58.614, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.93, "rotation_up": 43.7, "upward_expansion": 26.99, "deceleration": 40.68, "rotation_down": 16.08, "downward_expansion": 47.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.128333, 0.119182, 0.121095, 0.12757 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.13, "trend_reference": 0.13, "distance_from_trend": 0.0, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.096718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.344115, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 25.749092, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.181818, "excess_performance": 0.118113, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146048, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.344115, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078039, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.257491, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.366345, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.181818, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.666247, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1063710, "relative_activity": 0.497143, "balance": 4.666247, "dry_up": 1.371081, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136095, "annualized_volatility": 0.995203, "from_high_reference": -0.458333, "from_low_reference": 2.421053 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.13, "fair_value_reference": 0.096718, "structural_low": 0.09, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.155556, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.167294, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.155556, "worst_return": 0.155556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.311111, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.339996, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.311111, "worst_return": 0.311111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 2.888889, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 2.934275, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.888889, "worst_return": 2.888889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.162791, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.219048, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012195, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011765, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": 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-31.272466, "energy": 44.195843, "activity_lines": [ 0.105333, 0.106364, 0.124024, 0.12729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.12, "volume": 3652667, "typical_volume": 2243061.75, "trend": 0.125133, "fair_value": 0.097647, "relative_strength": 28.794127, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.538456, "energy": 20.797983, "activity_lines": [ 0.111, 0.108091, 0.122619, 0.127092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.125, "volume": 5332501, "typical_volume": 2462605.3, "trend": 0.127467, "fair_value": 0.097263, "relative_strength": 32.166464, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.836126, "energy": 24.344625, "activity_lines": [ 0.117, 0.110909, 0.12169, 0.127084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.135, "volume": 1685639, "typical_volume": 2361648.5, "trend": 0.13, "fair_value": 0.097006, "relative_strength": 37.025686, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.588612, "energy": 23.724899, "activity_lines": [ 0.125, 0.115636, 0.121619, 0.12757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.13, "volume": 1063710, "typical_volume": 2139646.5, "trend": 0.13, "fair_value": 0.096718, "relative_strength": 25.749092, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.266349, "energy": 23.568527, "activity_lines": [ 0.128333, 0.119182, 0.121095, 0.12757 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }