{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a2b561a-f938-4ca6-94bf-e59ac0d44d12", "symbol": "VDE", "name": "VANGUARD WORLD FUND VANGUARD ENERGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.476, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.687, "architecture_energy": 39.526, "architecture_maturity": 9.479, "architecture_confidence": 59.856, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.53, "rotation_up": 65.09, "upward_expansion": 73.82, "deceleration": 64.45, "rotation_down": 11.37, "downward_expansion": 5.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 164.632, 160.914665, 160.580772, 160.541966 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 162.37, "trend_reference": 158.196033, "distance_from_trend": 0.026385, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 126.14462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.287173, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.979263, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.089359, "excess_performance": -0.036266, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026385, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075021, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.287173, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007399, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009793, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044691, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089359, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.625225, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2150808, "relative_activity": 0.552869, "balance": 0.625225, "dry_up": 0.568534, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048794, "annualized_volatility": 0.258368, "from_high_reference": -0.094599, "from_low_reference": 0.40408 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 158.196033, "fair_value_reference": 126.14462, "structural_low": 148.424487, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.011612, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.012054, "regime_survival": 0.607143, "best_return": 0.136161, "worst_return": -0.185276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.023703, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.022522, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.254567, "worst_return": -0.139016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.036719, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010207, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.334713, "worst_return": -0.135558, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 4830212.4, "trend": 154.317647, "fair_value": 125.113039, "relative_strength": 6.262218, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.854748, "energy": 15.671123, "activity_lines": [ 156.143235, 156.841895, 159.229041, 158.521218 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 168.23, "volume": 2124420, "typical_volume": 4283298.35, "trend": 155.798213, "fair_value": 125.484774, "relative_strength": 10.079235, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.307966, "energy": 25.054884, "activity_lines": [ 160.781333, 158.589058, 159.913758, 159.418789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 167.97, "volume": 2323756, "typical_volume": 4061185.35, "trend": 157.132553, "fair_value": 125.844702, "relative_strength": 8.378041, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.202797, "energy": 36.602218, "activity_lines": [ 164.17, 160.270876, 160.528458, 160.204066 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 162.37, "volume": 2150808, "typical_volume": 3890264.1, "trend": 158.196033, "fair_value": 126.14462, "relative_strength": 0.979263, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.686705, "energy": 39.526192, "activity_lines": [ 164.632, 160.914665, 160.580772, 160.541966 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }