{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a2db82a-c968-4ea5-8656-906ec78a8d03", "symbol": "SCHR", "name": "SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR INTERMEDIATE-TERM US TREASURY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.631, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.092, "architecture_energy": 54.719, "architecture_maturity": 22.59, "architecture_confidence": 89.037, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.77, "rotation_up": 14.74, "upward_expansion": 11.32, "deceleration": 39.82, "rotation_down": 63.21, "downward_expansion": 86.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.380078, 24.429729, 24.479684, 24.538582 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 24.43, "trend_reference": 24.611431, "distance_from_trend": -0.007372, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.450665, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.567946, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.012266, "excess_performance": -0.137891, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007372, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002617, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.041761, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017427, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115679, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010118, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012266, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.62791, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13187323, "relative_activity": 0.93873, "balance": 1.62791, "dry_up": 0.93897, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00743, "annualized_volatility": 0.039185, "from_high_reference": -0.026643, "from_low_reference": 0.012979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.611431, "fair_value_reference": 23.450665, "structural_low": 24.251496, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.000148, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017603, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.034849, "worst_return": -0.039532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.000495, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011649, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.03728, "worst_return": -0.043822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.027003, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.037876, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.041916, "worst_return": -0.067845, "sufficient": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.448245, "energy": 53.927406, "activity_lines": [ 24.420263, 24.46596, 24.512448, 24.570812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.321241, "volume": 11752286, "typical_volume": 14056930.7, "trend": 24.619643, "fair_value": 23.434168, "relative_strength": -9.199612, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.749695, "energy": 62.461021, "activity_lines": [ 24.370395, 24.437152, 24.489991, 24.550817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.43, "volume": 13187323, "typical_volume": 14048051.15, "trend": 24.611431, "fair_value": 23.450665, "relative_strength": -11.567946, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.092298, "energy": 54.719365, "activity_lines": [ 24.380078, 24.429729, 24.479684, 24.538582 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }