{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a3028e8-1864-496e-a20e-addf8808e080", "symbol": "MMA", "name": "Maronan Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 7.98, "architecture_energy": 11.889, "architecture_maturity": 29.55, "architecture_confidence": 61.804, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.31, "rotation_up": 23.98, "upward_expansion": 22.81, "deceleration": 66.52, "rotation_down": 46.35, "downward_expansion": 34.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.403667, 0.415727, 0.398929, 0.395892 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.44, "trend_reference": 0.413833, "distance_from_trend": 0.06323, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.286154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.537634, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.776682, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.035294, "excess_performance": -0.028412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06323, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0548, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.537634, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.321906, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.107767, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118024, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035294, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.257022, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1468027, "relative_activity": 0.678587, "balance": 1.257022, "dry_up": 0.544007, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149476, "annualized_volatility": 0.836159, "from_high_reference": -0.366906, "from_low_reference": 0.955556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.413833, "fair_value_reference": 0.286154, "structural_low": 0.285, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.02439, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.003717, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.339623, "worst_return": -0.196078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.039216, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.090147, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.294118, "worst_return": -0.04, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.17355, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.127128, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.425532, "worst_return": -0.078431, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.363364, 0.365071, 0.387516 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 0.51, "volume": 1804171, "typical_volume": 3112540.15, "trend": 0.404667, "fair_value": 0.277917, "relative_strength": 43.809873, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.899341, "energy": 42.756087, "activity_lines": [ 0.430333, 0.392364, 0.376357, 0.394796 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.425, "volume": 222128, "typical_volume": 2747896.0, "trend": 0.407833, "fair_value": 0.279167, "relative_strength": 19.428278, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.982668, "energy": 38.444027, "activity_lines": [ 0.434667, 0.402636, 0.379976, 0.396108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.47, "volume": 674563, "typical_volume": 2591507.55, "trend": 0.4125, "fair_value": 0.280609, "relative_strength": 29.224295, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.372842, "energy": 53.252171, "activity_lines": [ 0.450667, 0.419727, 0.387881, 0.400118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.43, "volume": 1688012, "typical_volume": 2559640.3, "trend": 0.415167, "fair_value": 0.281859, "relative_strength": 17.468164, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.803435, "energy": 48.63541, "activity_lines": [ 0.449, 0.426636, 0.392024, 0.401247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.375, "volume": 980087, "typical_volume": 2457528.65, "trend": 0.4165, "fair_value": 0.282788, "relative_strength": 1.807568, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.278336, "energy": 12.031424, "activity_lines": [ 0.424333, 0.421545, 0.391071, 0.398656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.385, "volume": 1449964, "typical_volume": 2388118.4, "trend": 0.4165, "fair_value": 0.283814, "relative_strength": 4.039267, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.960265, "energy": 6.394005, "activity_lines": [ 0.405333, 0.417455, 0.391833, 0.396624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.38, "volume": 809453, "typical_volume": 2258775.45, "trend": 0.414833, "fair_value": 0.284776, "relative_strength": -0.367886, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.081076, "energy": 23.695787, "activity_lines": [ 0.393, 0.411182, 0.3925, 0.394269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.44, "volume": 1468027, "typical_volume": 2163359.9, "trend": 0.413833, "fair_value": 0.286154, "relative_strength": 10.776682, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.97954, "energy": 11.888824, "activity_lines": [ 0.403667, 0.415727, 0.398929, 0.395892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }