{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a35b54c-68ef-4b91-acae-f3f6cd8dcd17", "symbol": "XG01", "name": "Xtrackers Germany Government Bo", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.308, "architecture_energy": 88.924, "architecture_maturity": 17.127, "architecture_confidence": 75.945, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.31, "rotation_up": 75.49, "upward_expansion": 97.96, "deceleration": 40.38, "rotation_down": 19.53, "downward_expansion": 19.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.018333, 34.995363, 34.946333, 34.900258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 35.044998, "trend_reference": 34.838333, "distance_from_trend": 0.005932, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.49023, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.016085, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.608303, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.009797, "excess_performance": -0.161095, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005932, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003654, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.016085, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003274, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136083, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020654, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009797, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 15.318623, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6874, "relative_activity": 2.075985, "balance": 15.318623, "dry_up": 1.281409, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001141, "annualized_volatility": 0.002205, "from_high_reference": -0.000428, "from_low_reference": 0.019936 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.838333, "fair_value_reference": 34.49023, "structural_low": 34.665001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.001574, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.019872, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.001574, "worst_return": 0.001574, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003149, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 33.900002, "volume": 1107, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 33.895, "volume": 159, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, 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34.799333, "fair_value": 34.47119, "relative_strength": -11.892922, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.488294, "energy": 85.648799, "activity_lines": [ 34.976333, 34.952364, 34.902334, 34.85942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.005001, "volume": 7318, "typical_volume": 3278.0, "trend": 34.812333, "fair_value": 34.477471, "relative_strength": -11.344694, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.034851, "energy": 84.196906, "activity_lines": [ 34.988667, 34.966, 34.916524, 34.872688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.02, "volume": 858, "typical_volume": 3071.0, "trend": 34.825333, "fair_value": 34.483779, "relative_strength": -11.506765, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.509343, "energy": 85.905161, "activity_lines": [ 35.001334, 34.979728, 34.930905, 34.886086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.044998, "volume": 6874, "typical_volume": 3311.2, "trend": 34.838333, "fair_value": 34.49023, "relative_strength": -13.608303, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.307733, "energy": 88.924094, "activity_lines": [ 35.018333, 34.995363, 34.946333, 34.900258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }