{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a37cfbf-40d6-4d89-8115-8a6b1a22f887", "symbol": "NOU", "name": "Noumi Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.732, "architecture_energy": 41.024, "architecture_maturity": 9.352, "architecture_confidence": 80.339, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.91, "rotation_up": 69.31, "upward_expansion": 45.67, "deceleration": 28.16, "rotation_down": 14.16, "downward_expansion": 18.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.116, 0.109073, 0.105757, 0.107095 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.12, "trend_reference": 0.1099, "distance_from_trend": 0.091902, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.133327, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.099957, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.172455, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.063706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.091902, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072313, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.099957, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107168, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061725, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11693, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.512573, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 930888, "relative_activity": 1.711699, "balance": 4.512573, "dry_up": 2.840982, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086859, "annualized_volatility": 0.428358, "from_high_reference": -0.4, "from_low_reference": 0.395349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1099, "fair_value_reference": 0.133327, "structural_low": 0.086, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.133333, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.143869, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.347826, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.005668, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.277778, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.222222, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.248951, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.361111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.194444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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{ "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.11, "volume": 211587, "typical_volume": 314910.6, "trend": 0.111733, "fair_value": 0.133551, "relative_strength": -10.543599, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.167621, "energy": 27.790315, "activity_lines": [ 0.0994, 0.098036, 0.102224, 0.106015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.105, "volume": 240439, "typical_volume": 308222.35, "trend": 0.1109, "fair_value": 0.133359, "relative_strength": -14.107925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.125172, "energy": 19.184501, "activity_lines": [ 0.102067, 0.099182, 0.102143, 0.105581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.12, "volume": 4731764, "typical_volume": 525860.85, "trend": 0.110567, "fair_value": 0.133327, "relative_strength": -1.463238, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.755034, "energy": 22.193935, "activity_lines": [ 0.109067, 0.103055, 0.103538, 0.106168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.115, "volume": 277051, "typical_volume": 517063.9, "trend": 0.110067, "fair_value": 0.133295, "relative_strength": -7.660612, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.294579, "energy": 33.722212, "activity_lines": [ 0.112667, 0.105745, 0.10441, 0.106454 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.12, "volume": 930888, "typical_volume": 543838.45, "trend": 0.1099, "fair_value": 0.133327, "relative_strength": -6.172455, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.732401, "energy": 41.02446, "activity_lines": [ 0.116, 0.109073, 0.105757, 0.107095 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }