{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a3883ef-2491-45d0-88ef-313b295d2e0e", "symbol": "BAP", "name": "Bapcor Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.409, "architecture_energy": 54.105, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.648, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.12, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 16.41, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 47.35, "downward_expansion": 75.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.428333, 0.426364, 0.445405, 0.540904 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.46, "trend_reference": 0.799251, "distance_from_trend": -0.424461, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.924971, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.882802, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -73.3631, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.746556, "excess_performance": -0.810262, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.424461, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.418198, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.882802, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013142, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.733631, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058211, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.746556, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.501598, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10814660, "relative_activity": 0.617658, "balance": 0.501598, "dry_up": 0.679659, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130435, "annualized_volatility": 0.979551, "from_high_reference": -0.887602, "from_low_reference": 0.277778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.799251, "fair_value_reference": 3.924971, "structural_low": 0.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.006753, "positive_rate": 0.527778, "directional_follow_through": 0.472222, "median_excess_return": 0.002625, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.209412, "worst_return": -0.513095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.044391, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.061906, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.159983, "worst_return": -0.68595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.08407, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.09095, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.070173, "worst_return": -0.746556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.574057, "energy": 67.581883, "activity_lines": [ 0.422667, 0.424273, 0.469548, 0.63577 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.37, "volume": 13243668, "typical_volume": 20334571.45, "trend": 0.913251, "fair_value": 3.995181, "relative_strength": -79.04512, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.110405, "energy": 70.430438, "activity_lines": [ 0.403, 0.415455, 0.45469, 0.597001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.44, "volume": 13484396, "typical_volume": 18687581.8, "trend": 0.856251, "fair_value": 3.960224, "relative_strength": -74.722138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.60948, "energy": 63.015489, "activity_lines": [ 0.413, 0.419818, 0.448595, 0.566468 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.46, "volume": 10814660, "typical_volume": 17509147.45, "trend": 0.799251, "fair_value": 3.924971, "relative_strength": -73.3631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.409171, "energy": 54.105392, "activity_lines": [ 0.428333, 0.426364, 0.445405, 0.540904 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }