{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a38bd46-d1a1-40d6-a9b1-bdc9545dc10c", "symbol": "TUSK", "name": "Mammoth Energy Services Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.274, "architecture_energy": 15.468, "architecture_maturity": 49.015, "architecture_confidence": 92.126, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.23, "rotation_up": 33.4, "upward_expansion": 48.88, "deceleration": 79.09, "rotation_down": 26.57, "downward_expansion": 26.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.942667, 2.952545, 2.970476, 2.852344 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.39, "trend_reference": 2.688333, "distance_from_trend": 0.261004, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.140801, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.079342, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 22.31479, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.454936, "excess_performance": 0.267482, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.261004, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156936, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.079342, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.349057, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.223148, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.377684, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.454936, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.88588, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1315649, "relative_activity": 0.803443, "balance": 0.88588, "dry_up": 0.574825, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15617, "annualized_volatility": 0.837233, "from_high_reference": -0.135204, "from_low_reference": 0.976676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.688333, "fair_value_reference": 3.140801, "structural_low": 1.93, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.055127, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.065288, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.327751, "worst_return": -0.220994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.140279, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.19837, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.751196, "worst_return": -0.429032, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.095652, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.174641, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.011962, "worst_return": -0.226415, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118056, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042735, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004202, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056522, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.076577, 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"relative_strength": 4.008595, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.304119, "energy": 14.980633, "activity_lines": [ 2.83, 2.957636, 2.933476, 2.802581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.65, "volume": 1064063, "typical_volume": 1637230.05, "trend": 2.645667, "fair_value": 3.153782, "relative_strength": 0.78837, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.071958, "energy": 13.283461, "activity_lines": [ 2.753333, 2.882364, 2.917905, 2.804323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.39, "volume": 1315649, "typical_volume": 1637514.45, "trend": 2.688333, "fair_value": 3.140801, "relative_strength": 22.31479, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.273623, "energy": 15.468275, "activity_lines": [ 2.942667, 2.952545, 2.970476, 2.852344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }