{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a3b72d6-deeb-4732-bb13-5c326b499464", "symbol": "TAL", "name": "Talius Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.384, "architecture_energy": 74.348, "architecture_maturity": 14.029, "architecture_confidence": 71.302, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.87, "rotation_up": 6.01, "upward_expansion": 22.99, "deceleration": 43.54, "rotation_down": 76.87, "downward_expansion": 84.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.059533, 0.065364, 0.067438, 0.067206 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.06, "trend_reference": 0.0686, "distance_from_trend": -0.125364, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.080853, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.257909, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.195362, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.230769, "excess_performance": -0.294475, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125364, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049423, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.257909, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090099, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.231954, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167082, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.230769, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.656041, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 840690, "relative_activity": 1.133463, "balance": 0.656041, "dry_up": 1.218221, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089744, "annualized_volatility": 0.567017, "from_high_reference": -0.368421, "from_low_reference": 0.165049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0686, "fair_value_reference": 0.080853, "structural_low": 0.0515, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.008929, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006522, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.225, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.322269, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.225, "worst_return": -0.225, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.0625, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.075528, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0625, "worst_return": 0.0625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.1375, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.243717, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.1375, "worst_return": -0.1375, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.085714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10989, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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0.070686, 0.070542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.066, "volume": 1937610, "typical_volume": 755528.6, "trend": 0.071533, "fair_value": 0.081968, "relative_strength": -12.338127, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.557111, "energy": 25.409927, "activity_lines": [ 0.0752, 0.074545, 0.070505, 0.070159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.06, "volume": 775179, "typical_volume": 748170.8, "trend": 0.070867, "fair_value": 0.081712, "relative_strength": -20.073905, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.065187, "energy": 20.175711, "activity_lines": [ 0.069533, 0.072182, 0.069767, 0.069415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.057, "volume": 1127077, "typical_volume": 735333.05, "trend": 0.0701, "fair_value": 0.081372, "relative_strength": -23.547218, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.359198, "energy": 48.775464, "activity_lines": [ 0.064067, 0.069455, 0.068781, 0.06852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.059, "volume": 871273, "typical_volume": 743980.25, "trend": 0.069267, "fair_value": 0.081109, "relative_strength": -22.443188, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.626041, "energy": 56.213003, "activity_lines": [ 0.060933, 0.067255, 0.068038, 0.067804 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.06, "volume": 840690, "typical_volume": 741700.45, "trend": 0.0686, "fair_value": 0.080853, "relative_strength": -23.195362, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.384497, "energy": 74.348326, "activity_lines": [ 0.059533, 0.065364, 0.067438, 0.067206 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }