{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a3cfcbe-7733-464f-9190-688b9b37a234", "symbol": "XACT-BEAR", "name": "XACT Bear ETF", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.466, "architecture_energy": 71.798, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.735, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 19.59, "upward_expansion": 14.08, "deceleration": 41.34, "rotation_down": 65.08, "downward_expansion": 87.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.859333, 11.015709, 11.27399, 11.539299 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.486, "trend_reference": 11.844267, "distance_from_trend": -0.114677, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.231365, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.353967, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.245018, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.128636, "excess_performance": -0.19013, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114677, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075952, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.353967, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053469, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.29245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029675, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.128636, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.809137, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3387934, "relative_activity": 0.574762, "balance": 0.809137, "dry_up": 0.746058, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040215, "annualized_volatility": 0.272826, "from_high_reference": -0.348291, "from_low_reference": 0.015298 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.844267, "fair_value_reference": 16.231365, "structural_low": 10.328, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.006353, "positive_rate": 0.457143, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": -0.009972, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.233204, "worst_return": -0.125704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.038264, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.043263, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.138537, "worst_return": -0.191367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.047726, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.051237, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.235818, "worst_return": -0.263731, "sufficient": true }, { 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11.302655, 11.564095, 11.777299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.094, "volume": 3869485, "typical_volume": 6273808.8, "trend": 12.022267, "fair_value": 16.361859, "relative_strength": -24.49279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.853191, "energy": 53.564921, "activity_lines": [ 11.183067, 11.247127, 11.488771, 11.711639 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.792, "volume": 5638994, "typical_volume": 6051331.15, "trend": 11.927, "fair_value": 16.298026, "relative_strength": -26.635634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.274547, "energy": 51.447364, "activity_lines": [ 11.052667, 11.153927, 11.391629, 11.632267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.486, "volume": 3387934, "typical_volume": 5894502.5, "trend": 11.844267, "fair_value": 16.231365, "relative_strength": -29.245018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.46602, "energy": 71.797726, "activity_lines": [ 10.859333, 11.015709, 11.27399, 11.539299 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }