{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a3fb54e-4d96-4377-88d4-a273a4b17f20", "symbol": "000911", "name": "Guangxi Rural Investment Sugar Industry Group Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.116, "architecture_energy": 51.132, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.24, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.02, "rotation_up": 26.84, "upward_expansion": 20.4, "deceleration": 66.75, "rotation_down": 46.78, "downward_expansion": 70.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.23, 4.202727, 4.687667, 5.14686 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.55, "trend_reference": 5.791, "distance_from_trend": -0.214298, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.243846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.371881, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.819772, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.441032, "excess_performance": -0.448432, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.214298, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16492, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.371881, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12453, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.338198, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022809, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.441032, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.063689, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26995086, "relative_activity": 0.801973, "balance": 1.063689, "dry_up": 0.568777, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114286, "annualized_volatility": 0.560002, "from_high_reference": -0.481186, "from_low_reference": 0.303725 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.791, "fair_value_reference": 7.243846, "structural_low": 3.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.014396, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.006157, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.189062, "worst_return": -0.255652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.06686, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.015198, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.34891, "worst_return": -0.165402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.052924, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.008478, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.258721, "worst_return": -0.156667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114883, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080808, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.055858, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012097, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005502, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013643, 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"activity_lines": [ 4.15, 4.597636, 5.186286, 5.639161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.92, "volume": 17514620, "typical_volume": 43549437.2, "trend": 6.119, "fair_value": 7.353462, "relative_strength": -43.122102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.316295, "energy": 85.880136, "activity_lines": [ 4.043333, 4.406364, 5.019714, 5.489957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.95, "volume": 16238101, "typical_volume": 39250780.1, "trend": 5.996, "fair_value": 7.315962, "relative_strength": -42.038542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.060771, "energy": 67.509284, "activity_lines": [ 4.011333, 4.254545, 4.868714, 5.350022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.18, "volume": 15834168, "typical_volume": 35004533.1, "trend": 5.883, "fair_value": 7.276795, "relative_strength": -36.831312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.700578, "energy": 62.790436, "activity_lines": [ 4.078, 4.180727, 4.753667, 5.23286 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.55, "volume": 26995086, "typical_volume": 33660820.6, "trend": 5.791, "fair_value": 7.243846, "relative_strength": -33.819772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.1163, "energy": 51.132186, "activity_lines": [ 4.23, 4.202727, 4.687667, 5.14686 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }