{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "7a402b8c-8de3-4333-9965-40c2878830ae",
    "symbol": "QQMG",
    "name": "Invesco ESG NASDAQ 100 ETF",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 49.998,
    "architecture_energy": 25.343,
    "architecture_maturity": 67.128,
    "architecture_confidence": 88.069,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 34.31,
        "rotation_up": 30.21,
        "upward_expansion": 58.19,
        "deceleration": 88.12,
        "rotation_down": 27.36,
        "downward_expansion": 19.53
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        48.978887,
        49.201327,
        48.882393,
        47.353649
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 50.4242,
    "trend_reference": 45.496577,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.108308,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 35.520608,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.419576,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 1.205627,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.208407,
    "excess_performance": 0.020953,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.108308,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.054691,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.419576,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.045722,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.012056,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007933,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.208407,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.294297,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 113858,
      "relative_activity": 1.030697,
      "balance": 2.294297,
      "dry_up": 0.895134,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.044149,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.212843,
      "from_high_reference": -0.028035,
      "from_low_reference": 0.325097
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 45.496577,
      "fair_value_reference": 35.520608,
      "structural_low": 38.0532,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.001295,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002524,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.091964,
        "worst_return": -0.022186,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.076897,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000487,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.140377,
        "worst_return": -0.104715,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.154987,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.006449,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.21109,
        "worst_return": 0.083075,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.264258,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001279,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.340519,
        "worst_return": 0.187998,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.042957,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.01751,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.052501,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.02266,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.12125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.119871,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.079611,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.100979,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-13",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.000232,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.049705,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.045671,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "return": 0.037693,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": true
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "relative_strength": 0.787741,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 100397.5,
        "trend": 44.427769,
        "fair_value": 34.75346,
        "relative_strength": 0.835414,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 250979,
        "typical_volume": 109021.35,
        "trend": 44.703507,
        "fair_value": 34.914367,
        "relative_strength": 0.945606,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 65.160868,
        "energy": 52.749774,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 48.4477,
        "volume": 91162,
        "typical_volume": 106948.75,
        "trend": 44.904391,
        "fair_value": 35.063786,
        "relative_strength": 1.202997,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.661989,
        "energy": 36.611046,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.447359,
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          48.273483,
          46.647704
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 47.6793,
        "volume": 116359,
        "typical_volume": 108500.95,
        "trend": 45.05925,
        "fair_value": 35.20474,
        "relative_strength": 1.184982,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.972595,
        "energy": 27.837772,
        "activity_lines": [
          48.76048,
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          48.410711,
          46.82673
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 48.0554,
        "volume": 74152,
        "typical_volume": 108002.0,
        "trend": 45.253098,
        "fair_value": 35.35354,
        "relative_strength": 1.393308,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.40048,
        "energy": 20.582946,
        "activity_lines": [
          48.439793,
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          48.551708,
          47.02003
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 50.4242,
        "volume": 113858,
        "typical_volume": 110466.95,
        "trend": 45.496577,
        "fair_value": 35.520608,
        "relative_strength": 1.205627,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.997567,
        "energy": 25.343183,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}