{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a43ab9a-f163-44bb-bd92-a04f10b49247", "symbol": "XREA", "name": "Xtrackers FTSE Developed Europe ex UK Real Estate UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 64.164, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.541, "architecture_energy": 23.509, "architecture_maturity": 31.942, "architecture_confidence": 76.134, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.36, "rotation_up": 20.49, "upward_expansion": 17.67, "deceleration": 47.81, "rotation_down": 43.6, "downward_expansion": 60.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.480666, 57.670363, 57.644904, 57.79972 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 56.810001, "trend_reference": 58.223333, "distance_from_trend": -0.024274, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.332885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045591, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.070892, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.080149, "excess_performance": -0.114822, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024274, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004335, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045591, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042473, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080709, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04972, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.080149, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.761634, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2353, "relative_activity": 2.440871, "balance": 0.761634, "dry_up": 1.492998, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020229, "annualized_volatility": 0.201662, "from_high_reference": -0.116485, "from_low_reference": 0.050481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.223333, "fair_value_reference": 54.332885, "structural_low": 54.080002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.010424, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.013886, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.156605, "worst_return": -0.078453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.015058, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.015104, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.096968, "worst_return": -0.067675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015301, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.006603, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121988, "worst_return": -0.208927, 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57.793272, 57.737333, 57.964817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.16, "volume": 1723, "typical_volume": 981.25, "trend": 58.284, "fair_value": 54.152564, "relative_strength": -6.880583, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.157793, "energy": 9.599178, "activity_lines": [ 58.057333, 57.889272, 57.789666, 57.955849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 57.299999, "volume": 734, "typical_volume": 908.75, "trend": 58.246, "fair_value": 54.246699, "relative_strength": -8.520769, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.770025, "energy": 11.007216, "activity_lines": [ 57.841999, 57.836181, 57.747809, 57.892365 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 56.810001, "volume": 2353, "typical_volume": 964.0, "trend": 58.223333, "fair_value": 54.332885, "relative_strength": -8.070892, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.540724, "energy": 23.50919, "activity_lines": [ 57.480666, 57.670363, 57.644904, 57.79972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }