{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a46ac80-0ed8-459f-a14a-af1863abf050", "symbol": "IZRL", "name": "ARK ISRAEL INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.31, "architecture_energy": 10.306, "architecture_maturity": 9.814, "architecture_confidence": 70.956, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.85, "rotation_up": 28.26, "upward_expansion": 48.62, "deceleration": 74.86, "rotation_down": 28.77, "downward_expansion": 26.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.81936, 29.926602, 30.126383, 29.823059 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 29.96, "trend_reference": 29.609373, "distance_from_trend": 0.011842, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.301724, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.285742, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.10579, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030261, "excess_performance": -0.095364, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011842, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009316, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.285742, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127116, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081058, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089136, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030261, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.7277, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61550, "relative_activity": 0.972882, "balance": 0.7277, "dry_up": 0.668787, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058737, "annualized_volatility": 0.291312, "from_high_reference": -0.08547, "from_low_reference": 0.182383 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.609373, "fair_value_reference": 23.301724, "structural_low": 25.96, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.005217, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027129, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.092173, "worst_return": -0.131844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.025368, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.06614, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.148157, "worst_return": -0.092351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.091384, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.033387, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.229375, "worst_return": -0.113988, "sufficient": true }, { 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30.736627, 30.692664, 29.798869, 29.661715 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 29.8, "volume": 52489, "typical_volume": 93924.35, "trend": 29.539139, "fair_value": 22.801434, "relative_strength": -6.277194, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.093012, "energy": 21.535579, "activity_lines": [ 30.40192, 30.58784, 29.845053, 29.683963 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 29.1506, "volume": 41162, "typical_volume": 91277.65, "trend": 29.563219, "fair_value": 22.870607, "relative_strength": -5.970228, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.358391, "energy": 17.555034, "activity_lines": [ 29.874747, 30.332216, 29.831914, 29.658896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.67, "volume": 49129, "typical_volume": 89204.4, "trend": 29.61846, "fair_value": 22.950979, "relative_strength": -3.045475, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.635328, "energy": 17.766197, "activity_lines": [ 29.986747, 30.368109, 29.963143, 29.730301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.605, "volume": 45863, "typical_volume": 88053.6, "trend": 29.665038, "fair_value": 23.026208, "relative_strength": -4.40842, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.801877, "energy": 16.159885, "activity_lines": [ 30.213747, 30.37236, 30.077091, 29.793949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.09, "volume": 25526, "typical_volume": 81442.35, "trend": 29.690563, "fair_value": 23.09826, "relative_strength": -4.402716, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.955602, "energy": 13.62507, "activity_lines": [ 30.198747, 30.283793, 30.130491, 29.821366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.7718, "volume": 30588, "typical_volume": 67950.15, "trend": 29.69279, "fair_value": 23.165465, "relative_strength": -4.698325, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.916961, "energy": 14.19689, "activity_lines": [ 30.10164, 30.163462, 30.140492, 29.826607 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.3475, "volume": 51581, "typical_volume": 65132.7, "trend": 29.669707, "fair_value": 23.231109, "relative_strength": -6.919989, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.128873, "energy": 6.133027, "activity_lines": [ 29.86498, 29.973044, 30.107836, 29.80433 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.96, "volume": 61550, "typical_volume": 63265.65, "trend": 29.609373, "fair_value": 23.301724, "relative_strength": -8.10579, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.309514, "energy": 10.305684, "activity_lines": [ 29.81936, 29.926602, 30.126383, 29.823059 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }