{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a49fb02-c47c-44b8-967f-769d524543d0", "symbol": "000623", "name": "Jilin Aodong Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.101, "architecture_energy": 11.734, "architecture_maturity": 15.935, "architecture_confidence": 67.893, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.76, "rotation_up": 39.93, "upward_expansion": 36.53, "deceleration": 38.37, "rotation_down": 17.66, "downward_expansion": 40.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.06, 17.847189, 17.755312, 17.901324 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.129999, "trend_reference": 18.286534, "distance_from_trend": -0.00856, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.334196, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109941, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.699985, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.113014, "excess_performance": -0.120414, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00856, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040312, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109941, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055929, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107501, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.113014, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.456095, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59888834, "relative_activity": 1.19706, "balance": 0.456095, "dry_up": 1.577712, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054051, "annualized_volatility": 0.235189, "from_high_reference": -0.178895, "from_low_reference": 0.101987 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.286534, "fair_value_reference": 16.334196, "structural_low": 16.452093, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.011628, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.008189, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.171575, "worst_return": -0.079075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.017853, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.045121, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.138655, "worst_return": -0.137157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.153142, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.054885, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.309187, "worst_return": -0.120234, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066467, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053503, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029447, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037183, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013627, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": 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"fair_value": 16.270806, "relative_strength": -5.559087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.370732, "energy": 18.014365, "activity_lines": [ 17.782763, 17.520426, 17.681588, 17.964847 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.67, "volume": 92314613, "typical_volume": 48993608.4, "trend": 18.381534, "fair_value": 16.291755, "relative_strength": -7.55933, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.613457, "energy": 18.017807, "activity_lines": [ 17.806978, 17.559589, 17.665512, 17.915178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.370001, "volume": 65183780, "typical_volume": 49865657.75, "trend": 18.333201, "fair_value": 16.314128, "relative_strength": -2.051723, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.0479, "energy": 9.26673, "activity_lines": [ 18.010868, 17.733843, 17.721055, 17.914434 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.129999, "volume": 59888834, "typical_volume": 50029952.5, "trend": 18.286534, "fair_value": 16.334196, "relative_strength": -7.699985, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.101055, "energy": 11.733606, "activity_lines": [ 18.06, 17.847189, 17.755312, 17.901324 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }