{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a4b5bb1-9e5d-4f4f-8267-c1a952061fc7", "symbol": "002014", "name": "Huangshan Novel Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.85, "architecture_energy": 15.896, "architecture_maturity": 52.971, "architecture_confidence": 63.471, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.62, "rotation_up": 31.58, "upward_expansion": 19.33, "deceleration": 42.3, "rotation_down": 20.11, "downward_expansion": 50.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.887333, 10.775636, 10.794366, 10.983532 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.97, "trend_reference": 11.24216, "distance_from_trend": -0.024209, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.626258, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139591, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.437483, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.107031, "excess_performance": -0.11443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024209, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020215, "read": "Falling" 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"invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.017352, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.028346, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.202881, "worst_return": -0.078431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.170213, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.145638, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.212485, "worst_return": -0.093425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.221233, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.194154, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.263691, "worst_return": 0.021915, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.604807, "energy": 22.808235, "activity_lines": [ 10.696, 10.630608, 10.826917, 11.05959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.68, "volume": 14878512, "typical_volume": 11309520.1, "trend": 11.287152, "fair_value": 9.582196, "relative_strength": -5.288143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.272652, "energy": 20.560172, "activity_lines": [ 10.723333, 10.635091, 10.791071, 11.018458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.04, "volume": 17109060, "typical_volume": 11264246.0, "trend": 11.264197, "fair_value": 9.605055, "relative_strength": -0.244424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.387986, "energy": 15.764068, "activity_lines": [ 10.846667, 10.713273, 10.794041, 11.002512 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.97, "volume": 23853464, "typical_volume": 11651163.55, "trend": 11.24216, "fair_value": 9.626258, "relative_strength": -5.437483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.850053, "energy": 15.896384, "activity_lines": [ 10.887333, 10.775636, 10.794366, 10.983532 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }