{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a4ccf5f-dbbc-4706-b5b8-f3c4753331e6", "symbol": "JSRI", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI Japan SRI PAB UCITS ETF Distribution", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.534, "architecture_energy": 72.036, "architecture_maturity": 38.074, "architecture_confidence": 77.851, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 70.75, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 62.71, "rotation_down": 18.0, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.821667, 24.530273, 23.854648, 23.418847 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.610001, "trend_reference": 22.944894, "distance_from_trend": 0.116153, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.057906, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.21617, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.438975, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.154655, "excess_performance": 0.090016, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.116153, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041751, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.21617, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121397, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.06439, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014557, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.154655, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.366709, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16900, "relative_activity": 1.283634, "balance": 1.366709, "dry_up": 1.521087, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02448, "annualized_volatility": 0.18776, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.236179 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.944894, "fair_value_reference": 21.057906, "structural_low": 20.951093, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.00493, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.010613, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.058281, "worst_return": -0.097748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.023154, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.01494, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.001376, "worst_return": -0.079945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.035378, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.007316, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.002751, "worst_return": -0.097872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.450001, "volume": 10528, "typical_volume": 11054.2, "trend": 22.745581, "fair_value": 20.992055, "relative_strength": 6.93047, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.668694, "energy": 86.442438, "activity_lines": [ 24.49, 24.125091, 23.481663, 23.140183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.295, "volume": 29158, "typical_volume": 12361.5, "trend": 22.840142, "fair_value": 21.021052, "relative_strength": 3.899374, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.059022, "energy": 64.093804, "activity_lines": [ 24.456334, 24.220818, 23.611687, 23.240146 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.610001, "volume": 16900, "typical_volume": 13165.75, "trend": 22.944894, "fair_value": 21.057906, "relative_strength": 6.438975, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.533762, "energy": 72.036271, "activity_lines": [ 24.821667, 24.530273, 23.854648, 23.418847 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }