{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a5068b6-8c88-49b6-ac3f-be19cbc3cd90", "symbol": "SNV3", "name": "Leverage Shares -3x Short Nvidia (NVDA) ETP Securities", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.282, "architecture_energy": 65.736, "architecture_maturity": 56.684, "architecture_confidence": 89.758, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.97, "rotation_up": 22.67, "upward_expansion": 10.75, "deceleration": 45.62, "rotation_down": 62.33, "downward_expansion": 84.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.206313, 1.301844, 1.369729, 1.596618 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.9355, "trend_reference": 1.896863, "distance_from_trend": -0.506817, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.523766, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.875661, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -69.225352, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.638454, "excess_performance": -0.809346, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.506817, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.226568, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.875661, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034794, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.692254, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032743, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.638454, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.989313, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 940944, "relative_activity": 1.335132, "balance": 0.989313, "dry_up": 0.93027, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.266472, "annualized_volatility": 1.062887, "from_high_reference": -0.814385, "from_low_reference": 0.005914 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.896863, "fair_value_reference": 7.523766, "structural_low": 0.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.129148, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.166912, "regime_survival": 0.928571, "best_return": 0.390056, "worst_return": -0.39705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.34487, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.423278, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.166457, "worst_return": -0.538846, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.602305, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.745697, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.589003, "worst_return": -0.615608, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 672354.05, "trend": 1.957997, "fair_value": 7.568584, "relative_strength": -52.264186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.675358, "energy": 46.400341, "activity_lines": [ 1.35092, 1.383098, 1.438321, 1.662586 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9355, "volume": 940944, "typical_volume": 704757.1, "trend": 1.896863, "fair_value": 7.523766, "relative_strength": -69.225352, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.282075, "energy": 65.736377, "activity_lines": [ 1.206313, 1.301844, 1.369729, 1.596618 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }