{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a53452d-8aed-45a4-b877-a69a416092ee", "symbol": "THIP", "name": "Thantawan Industry Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 50.782, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 5.142, "architecture_energy": 21.045, "architecture_maturity": 33.624, "architecture_confidence": 42.553, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.29, "rotation_up": 41.87, "upward_expansion": 21.37, "deceleration": 44.02, "rotation_down": 12.04, "downward_expansion": 53.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.4, 21.145455, 21.201429, 21.430206 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.1, "trend_reference": 21.660388, "distance_from_trend": 0.020296, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.323458, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.052456, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.554595, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.009953, "excess_performance": -0.182372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020296, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013119, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.052456, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036998, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145546, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051178, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009953, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.645601, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107100, "relative_activity": 2.132192, "balance": 0.645601, "dry_up": 1.183058, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017403, "annualized_volatility": 0.125796, "from_high_reference": -0.122784, "from_low_reference": 0.083333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.660388, "fair_value_reference": 23.323458, "structural_low": 20.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.017094, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.030778, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.008, "worst_return": -0.053571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.066964, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.095092, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.042735, "worst_return": -0.088, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.052836, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.075267, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.013672, "worst_return": -0.092, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004032, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009009, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008772, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045045, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037352, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004464, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07489, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009569, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 21.960127, "volume": 114400, "typical_volume": 87110.0, "trend": 24.900786, "fair_value": 25.942517, "relative_strength": -18.52166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.251012, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.600052, "energy": 41.253077, "activity_lines": [ 20.88, 20.830909, 21.236278, 21.477793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.1, "volume": 70200, "typical_volume": 57415.0, "trend": 21.679202, "fair_value": 23.338699, "relative_strength": -20.91902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.055182, "energy": 30.904427, "activity_lines": [ 20.973333, 20.874546, 21.188886, 21.439156 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.1, "volume": 17900, "typical_volume": 55370.0, "trend": 21.659527, "fair_value": 23.326545, "relative_strength": -19.433952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.838668, "energy": 24.729501, "activity_lines": [ 21.033333, 20.92, 21.144762, 21.401788 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.1, "volume": 107100, "typical_volume": 50230.0, "trend": 21.660388, "fair_value": 23.323458, "relative_strength": -14.554595, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.142469, "energy": 21.044906, "activity_lines": [ 21.4, 21.145455, 21.201429, 21.430206 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }