{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a54968a-0b7c-4a0d-9fa2-1862dfa36e99", "symbol": "900942", "name": "Huangshan Tourism Development Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 52.559, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.723, "architecture_energy": 21.867, "architecture_maturity": 76.86, "architecture_confidence": 66.235, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.61, "rotation_up": 28.12, "upward_expansion": 20.53, "deceleration": 46.84, "rotation_down": 20.62, "downward_expansion": 54.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.679333, 0.676715, 0.678903, 0.686555 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.68, "trend_reference": 0.696188, "distance_from_trend": -0.023252, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.699191, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.027447, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.470939, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.048951, "excess_performance": -0.005747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023252, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011678, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.027447, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0137, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024709, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086161, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048951, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.389601, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 764626, "relative_activity": 0.92165, "balance": 0.389601, "dry_up": 1.083866, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014283, "annualized_volatility": 0.061886, "from_high_reference": -0.077341, "from_low_reference": 0.030683 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.696188, "fair_value_reference": 0.699191, "structural_low": 0.659757, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.005811, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": -0.001129, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.068671, "worst_return": -0.063408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.026587, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.021185, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.107296, "worst_return": -0.042667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012735, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.079734, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.08658, "worst_return": -0.043953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.077959, "energy": 49.245766, "activity_lines": [ 0.67345, 0.672821, 0.683244, 0.691364 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.677, "volume": 649632, "typical_volume": 940043.4, "trend": 0.697946, "fair_value": 0.699423, "relative_strength": 0.761111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.137116, "energy": 39.471729, "activity_lines": [ 0.675257, 0.673145, 0.681642, 0.689975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.676, "volume": 1238997, "typical_volume": 905551.6, "trend": 0.697304, "fair_value": 0.69933, "relative_strength": -0.42094, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.651397, "energy": 31.384368, "activity_lines": [ 0.676041, 0.673564, 0.680183, 0.688559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.683, "volume": 943563, "typical_volume": 876880.9, "trend": 0.696763, "fair_value": 0.699258, "relative_strength": 0.375776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.468879, "energy": 25.4333, "activity_lines": [ 0.678667, 0.675445, 0.679586, 0.687637 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.68, "volume": 764626, "typical_volume": 829626.9, "trend": 0.696188, "fair_value": 0.699191, "relative_strength": -2.470939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.722808, "energy": 21.867406, "activity_lines": [ 0.679333, 0.676715, 0.678903, 0.686555 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }