{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a54fc14-25ee-4203-a538-3d3a7ca617a6", "symbol": "GFTU", "name": "Grafton Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.606, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 60.457, "architecture_energy": 72.907, "architecture_maturity": 17.178, "architecture_confidence": 75.843, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.28, "rotation_up": 78.21, "upward_expansion": 64.32, "deceleration": 20.97, "rotation_down": 16.25, "downward_expansion": 22.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 978.38, 944.52, 910.477258, 909.379418 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1042.8, "trend_reference": 914.960576, "distance_from_trend": 0.139721, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 931.423295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.119577, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.916147, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.090653, "excess_performance": 0.039417, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.139721, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003269, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.119577, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179894, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049161, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.173703, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090653, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.415794, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1388782, "relative_activity": 0.841156, "balance": 1.415794, "dry_up": 0.89383, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051525, "annualized_volatility": 0.269548, "from_high_reference": -0.002487, "from_low_reference": 0.322343 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 914.960576, "fair_value_reference": 931.423295, "structural_low": 788.599976, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.001935, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.000324, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.000198, "worst_return": -0.008674, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.028387, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.042586, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.164048, "worst_return": -0.130176, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.093708, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.167204, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.076225, "worst_return": -0.115958, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 943.5, "volume": 1542800, "typical_volume": 1955527.75, "trend": 910.449262, "fair_value": 929.838267, "relative_strength": -3.815432, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.269675, "energy": 33.408044, "activity_lines": [ 923.62, 902.770908, 888.928686, 897.366992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 965.7, "volume": 1602223, "typical_volume": 1897307.25, "trend": 911.858126, "fair_value": 930.362216, "relative_strength": -2.569017, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.109782, "energy": 51.129142, "activity_lines": [ 939.92, 917.894545, 896.180972, 900.931555 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1042.8, "volume": 1388782, "typical_volume": 1651039.05, "trend": 914.960576, "fair_value": 931.423295, "relative_strength": 4.916147, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 60.456869, "energy": 72.907218, "activity_lines": [ 978.38, 944.52, 910.477258, 909.379418 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }