{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a59f5e0-1367-40a6-9079-533c7b180c54", "symbol": "C1PR34", "name": "Copart, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.914, "architecture_energy": 62.087, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.381, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.96, "rotation_up": 20.09, "upward_expansion": 10.84, "deceleration": 60.0, "rotation_down": 63.2, "downward_expansion": 84.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.296666, 73.572181, 76.783476, 80.068193 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 74.099998, "trend_reference": 85.991666, "distance_from_trend": -0.138289, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 127.918462, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.420725, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.142493, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.293815, "excess_performance": -0.236767, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.138289, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109076, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.420725, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058083, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.291425, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104578, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.293815, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.027331, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65, "relative_activity": 0.026928, "balance": 1.027331, "dry_up": 0.454668, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052798, "annualized_volatility": 0.331672, "from_high_reference": -0.455747, "from_low_reference": 0.08667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 85.991666, "fair_value_reference": 127.918462, "structural_low": 68.190002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.022343, "positive_rate": 0.238095, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.025622, "regime_survival": 0.952381, "best_return": 0.085857, "worst_return": -0.138747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.073798, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.067508, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.079304, "worst_return": -0.195393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.217557, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.282042, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.004892, "worst_return": 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"Developing", "return": 0.076425, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.120818, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014617, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017424, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11851, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.104429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033368, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022419, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00557, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088526, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.453741, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 107.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 723.3, "trend": 98.9695, "fair_value": 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87.64466, "activity_lines": [ 75.688666, 77.920727, 80.494, 84.449398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 70.199997, "volume": 1691, "typical_volume": 2552.35, "trend": 89.343667, "fair_value": 128.630898, "relative_strength": -36.609263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.59774, "energy": 90.072013, "activity_lines": [ 73.362665, 76.194181, 79.236142, 83.132279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 68.190002, "volume": 163, "typical_volume": 2406.95, "trend": 87.977, "fair_value": 128.35968, "relative_strength": -37.442399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.543857, "energy": 94.101841, "activity_lines": [ 71.153333, 74.338545, 77.907714, 81.767527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.57, "volume": 2471, "typical_volume": 2495.9, "trend": 87.032667, "fair_value": 128.12936, "relative_strength": -31.966173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.51803, "energy": 67.0591, "activity_lines": [ 71.674666, 73.901272, 77.333619, 80.902559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.099998, "volume": 65, "typical_volume": 2413.85, "trend": 85.991666, "fair_value": 127.918462, "relative_strength": -29.142493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.913548, "energy": 62.08653, "activity_lines": [ 72.296666, 73.572181, 76.783476, 80.068193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }