{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a5cce09-cdc3-427c-b3c0-2d94f3e0d00b", "symbol": "SCHE", "name": "SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR EMERGING MKTS EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.429, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.558, "architecture_energy": 29.682, "architecture_maturity": 47.286, "architecture_confidence": 60.644, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.71, "rotation_up": 41.76, "upward_expansion": 73.69, "deceleration": 65.31, "rotation_down": 23.94, "downward_expansion": 2.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.165333, 36.058186, 35.92695, 35.524049 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 36.99, "trend_reference": 35.108311, "distance_from_trend": 0.053597, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.16495, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.313334, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.657544, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.058369, "excess_performance": -0.067256, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053597, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031529, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.313334, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045487, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026575, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043458, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058369, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.983643, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13573163, "relative_activity": 0.969842, "balance": 1.983643, "dry_up": 1.165386, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035141, "annualized_volatility": 0.193543, "from_high_reference": -0.009606, "from_low_reference": 0.229599 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.108311, "fair_value_reference": 28.16495, "structural_low": 31.755, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.00394, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.002833, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.101661, "worst_return": -0.095103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.012518, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.022789, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.143216, "worst_return": -0.032016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023592, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.025181, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.183565, "worst_return": -0.007821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 35.167446, "activity_lines": [ 36.160269, 36.039807, 35.614509, 35.247893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.36, "volume": 17255834, "typical_volume": 14064479.8, "trend": 34.834645, "fair_value": 27.915363, "relative_strength": -3.189657, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.57585, "energy": 19.092164, "activity_lines": [ 35.888293, 35.920758, 35.646274, 35.288131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.39, "volume": 13008363, "typical_volume": 13811892.3, "trend": 34.917311, "fair_value": 27.98966, "relative_strength": -2.533997, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.698278, "energy": 16.307295, "activity_lines": [ 35.678667, 35.8327, 35.680753, 35.32396 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.03, "volume": 21402064, "typical_volume": 14033021.25, "trend": 35.001311, "fair_value": 28.07262, "relative_strength": -1.856664, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.063053, "energy": 18.070188, "activity_lines": [ 35.778667, 35.861117, 35.765518, 35.395747 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.99, "volume": 13573163, "typical_volume": 13995236.65, "trend": 35.108311, "fair_value": 28.16495, "relative_strength": -2.657544, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.5579, "energy": 29.682328, "activity_lines": [ 36.165333, 36.058186, 35.92695, 35.524049 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }