{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a65b819-f65b-468f-aeb1-e53cc8aece3e", "symbol": "IBDV", "name": "ISHARES TRUST IBONDS DEC 2030 TERM CORPORATE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 83.434, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.901, "architecture_energy": 40.539, "architecture_maturity": 4.167, "architecture_confidence": 89.727, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.33, "rotation_up": 15.2, "upward_expansion": 7.57, "deceleration": 41.53, "rotation_down": 57.03, "downward_expansion": 83.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.57123, 21.597139, 21.622968, 21.643862 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.63, "trend_reference": 21.675201, "distance_from_trend": -0.002085, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.311952, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.06489, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.867989, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006451, "excess_performance": -0.132076, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002085, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000334, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.06489, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01758, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10868, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008182, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006451, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.430329, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3637505, "relative_activity": 1.137536, "balance": 1.430329, "dry_up": 0.947564, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007507, "annualized_volatility": 0.032869, "from_high_reference": -0.015753, "from_low_reference": 0.024169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.675201, "fair_value_reference": 20.311952, "structural_low": 21.455267, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.01149, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.018265, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.045766, "worst_return": -0.046007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02722, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.031893, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.087001, "worst_return": -0.086947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.015978, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.027851, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.074556, "worst_return": -0.111801, "sufficient": 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21.567746, "volume": 5338081, "typical_volume": 3363759.55, "trend": 21.687595, "fair_value": 20.230629, "relative_strength": -10.077073, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.856943, "energy": 17.710661, "activity_lines": [ 21.640849, 21.640596, 21.653826, 21.673406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.607594, "volume": 3109756, "typical_volume": 3377246.45, "trend": 21.686827, "fair_value": 20.250399, "relative_strength": -8.236668, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.64685, "energy": 23.37394, "activity_lines": [ 21.624554, 21.635064, 21.647926, 21.668245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.507974, "volume": 2457471, "typical_volume": 3308714.0, "trend": 21.680774, "fair_value": 20.269923, "relative_strength": -7.884014, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.2834, "energy": 45.234067, "activity_lines": [ 21.579155, 21.613038, 21.634064, 21.656706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.527898, "volume": 2915387, "typical_volume": 3295007.85, "trend": 21.676204, "fair_value": 20.29016, "relative_strength": -8.485346, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.749787, "energy": 50.860312, "activity_lines": [ 21.551143, 21.595356, 21.623497, 21.646843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.63, "volume": 3637505, "typical_volume": 3197704.6, "trend": 21.675201, "fair_value": 20.311952, "relative_strength": -10.867989, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.901121, "energy": 40.538758, "activity_lines": [ 21.57123, 21.597139, 21.622968, 21.643862 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }