{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a718082-33cc-4890-98ba-17297ea3a814", "symbol": "DCH", "name": "Dauch Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.758, "architecture_energy": 11.177, "architecture_maturity": 39.31, "architecture_confidence": 59.885, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.81, "rotation_up": 26.33, "upward_expansion": 15.06, "deceleration": 43.14, "rotation_down": 26.82, "downward_expansion": 60.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.786667, 5.680909, 5.876238, 5.97172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.35, "trend_reference": 6.287667, "distance_from_trend": 0.009914, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.292949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.009066, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.711684, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.263341, "excess_performance": -0.388966, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009914, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040832, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.009066, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017209, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097117, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105473, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.263341, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.105157, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20874012, "relative_activity": 1.086866, "balance": 1.105157, "dry_up": 0.844705, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112416, "annualized_volatility": 0.549, "from_high_reference": -0.313514, "from_low_reference": 0.291963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.287667, "fair_value_reference": 6.292949, "structural_low": 4.915, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.000699, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.00521, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.237817, "worst_return": -0.269807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.016921, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.056172, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.328058, "worst_return": -0.363481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.058888, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.122246, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.553885, "worst_return": -0.307292, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.352668, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06701, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067961, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070018, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.348215, "energy": 66.283789, "activity_lines": [ 5.354667, 5.703818, 5.894571, 6.076215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.48, "volume": 14397612, "typical_volume": 20588981.4, "trend": 6.365, "fair_value": 6.316731, "relative_strength": -18.394917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.326521, "energy": 61.68498, "activity_lines": [ 5.350667, 5.618, 5.855905, 6.017011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.65, "volume": 15554731, "typical_volume": 19749011.05, "trend": 6.337, "fair_value": 6.300513, "relative_strength": -16.873161, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.658073, "energy": 36.043587, "activity_lines": [ 5.458667, 5.579091, 5.833857, 5.970882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.35, "volume": 20874012, "typical_volume": 19205681.75, "trend": 6.287667, "fair_value": 6.292949, "relative_strength": -9.711684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.758212, "energy": 11.176759, "activity_lines": [ 5.786667, 5.680909, 5.876238, 5.97172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }