{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a728ff1-7c22-4266-a1a4-628f850bd482", "symbol": "VFEM", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets UCITS ETF USD Distributing", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.094, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.972, "architecture_energy": 21.436, "architecture_maturity": 44.479, "architecture_confidence": 83.033, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.54, "rotation_up": 30.03, "upward_expansion": 55.97, "deceleration": 87.46, "rotation_down": 30.28, "downward_expansion": 19.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.647667, 60.801561, 60.642888, 60.012666 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 61.825001, "trend_reference": 59.294782, "distance_from_trend": 0.042672, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.027021, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.261039, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.56214, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.060852, "excess_performance": 0.009616, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042672, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029304, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.261039, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028227, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005621, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062694, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060852, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.106097, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79314, "relative_activity": 0.556623, "balance": 1.106097, "dry_up": 0.71623, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030185, "annualized_volatility": 0.161277, "from_high_reference": -0.023996, "from_low_reference": 0.214854 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.294782, "fair_value_reference": 49.027021, "structural_low": 53.0, "invalidation": 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"direction": 30.092759, "energy": 18.232613, "activity_lines": [ 60.661666, 60.855523, 60.303602, 59.682423 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.115002, "volume": 55603, "typical_volume": 144492.8, "trend": 59.015031, "fair_value": 48.769033, "relative_strength": -1.813499, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.295388, "energy": 17.376695, "activity_lines": [ 60.325, 60.727296, 60.376725, 59.764036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.185001, "volume": 157319, "typical_volume": 143891.75, "trend": 59.141193, "fair_value": 48.889301, "relative_strength": -2.882, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.384018, "energy": 17.909132, "activity_lines": [ 60.188334, 60.616929, 60.440296, 59.839518 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.825001, "volume": 79314, "typical_volume": 142491.5, "trend": 59.294782, "fair_value": 49.027021, "relative_strength": -0.56214, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.972124, "energy": 21.435583, "activity_lines": [ 60.647667, 60.801561, 60.642888, 60.012666 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }