{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a7e1cc1-6619-4956-aa6a-992ba3d17a17", "symbol": "ITW", "name": "Itway S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -85.745, "architecture_energy": 87.766, "architecture_maturity": 69.331, "architecture_confidence": 83.802, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.52, "rotation_up": 11.2, "upward_expansion": 19.75, "deceleration": 37.4, "rotation_down": 82.8, "downward_expansion": 97.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.9416, 0.970255, 1.005329, 1.033385 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.902, "trend_reference": 1.082367, "distance_from_trend": -0.166641, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.306635, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.309677, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.815601, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.263673, "excess_performance": -0.434565, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166641, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094254, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.309677, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097657, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.358156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094691, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.263673, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.312384, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67636, "relative_activity": 1.226763, "balance": 0.312384, "dry_up": 0.718689, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052533, "annualized_volatility": 0.244494, "from_high_reference": -0.441486, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.082367, "fair_value_reference": 1.306635, "structural_low": 0.902, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.020036, "positive_rate": 0.354839, "directional_follow_through": 0.645161, "median_excess_return": -0.037082, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.361022, "worst_return": -0.148148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.068442, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.057281, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.63522, "worst_return": -0.217518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007407, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039822, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.485714, "worst_return": -0.239024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069091, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095618, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.284404, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.202381, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", 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77.73109, "activity_lines": [ 0.993667, 1.009, 1.035333, 1.065559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.984, "volume": 25267, "typical_volume": 55349.15, "trend": 1.107767, "fair_value": 1.317096, "relative_strength": -28.862412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.291579, "energy": 74.526478, "activity_lines": [ 0.987067, 1.002745, 1.028814, 1.056938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.936, "volume": 29469, "typical_volume": 54931.85, "trend": 1.0953, "fair_value": 1.311814, "relative_strength": -32.062324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.839254, "energy": 82.144722, "activity_lines": [ 0.9672, 0.988964, 1.018371, 1.045856 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.902, "volume": 67636, "typical_volume": 55133.7, "trend": 1.082367, "fair_value": 1.306635, "relative_strength": -35.815601, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.74526, "energy": 87.76643, "activity_lines": [ 0.9416, 0.970255, 1.005329, 1.033385 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }