{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a818b39-2bed-4bd4-9d6c-02c3914b7144", "symbol": "284980", "name": "KB Asset Management Co., Ltd. - KBStar 200 Financials ETF Fund", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.13, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.842, "architecture_energy": 8.491, "architecture_maturity": 13.805, "architecture_confidence": 64.281, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.66, "rotation_up": 33.19, "upward_expansion": 50.59, "deceleration": 75.5, "rotation_down": 22.65, "downward_expansion": 23.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 22543.788411, 22679.937251, 22689.203097, 22475.421707 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22480.0, "trend_reference": 21944.113802, "distance_from_trend": 0.02442, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13272.239255, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.693761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.751133, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.115114, "excess_performance": -0.114715, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02442, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10526, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.693761, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.242122, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047511, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.218968, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115114, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.598623, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33107, "relative_activity": 0.512304, "balance": 1.598623, "dry_up": 0.773748, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088123, "annualized_volatility": 0.38732, "from_high_reference": -0.098765, "from_low_reference": 0.553059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21944.113802, "fair_value_reference": 13272.239255, "structural_low": 19234.997382, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.010471, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.001913, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.161574, "worst_return": -0.138745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.039948, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.07206, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.290443, "worst_return": -0.108917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.041596, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.090833, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.352712, 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"activity_lines": [ 22543.788411, 22679.937251, 22689.203097, 22475.421707 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }