{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a835ac9-fd6b-4219-94b1-2bb4465bad14", "symbol": "BZH", "name": "Beazer Homes USA Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.285, "architecture_energy": 80.549, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.208, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 74.64, "upward_expansion": 94.62, "deceleration": 43.73, "rotation_down": 13.07, "downward_expansion": 18.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.772, 31.398727, 28.409714, 26.682989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 33.18, "trend_reference": 25.115333, "distance_from_trend": 0.321105, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.422885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.25573, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 21.72873, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.324551, "excess_performance": 0.198926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.321105, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124114, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.25573, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.540303, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.217287, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.486936, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.324551, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.240713, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7853845, "relative_activity": 2.768231, "balance": 7.240713, "dry_up": 1.121316, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086834, "annualized_volatility": 0.533316, "from_high_reference": -0.039375, "from_low_reference": 0.861431 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.115333, "fair_value_reference": 26.422885, "structural_low": 17.825, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.047515, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": -0.05196, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.253606, "worst_return": -0.175694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.10416, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.163538, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.555609, "worst_return": -0.299868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.095532, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.228781, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.15758, "worst_return": -0.452224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"up", "direction": 67.729861, "energy": 76.072848, "activity_lines": [ 27.933333, 26.475818, 24.368667, 23.887097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.89, "volume": 3338460, "typical_volume": 2622787.3, "trend": 23.558667, "fair_value": 26.404167, "relative_strength": 21.573663, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.339428, "energy": 82.680928, "activity_lines": [ 29.386667, 27.748182, 25.174952, 24.444624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.91, "volume": 1995395, "typical_volume": 2591408.2, "trend": 23.957, "fair_value": 26.437179, "relative_strength": 26.954526, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.108763, "energy": 86.589038, "activity_lines": [ 30.784667, 29.001273, 26.055571, 25.047935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.19, "volume": 1437981, "typical_volume": 2575002.45, "trend": 24.387333, "fair_value": 26.422821, "relative_strength": 28.378582, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.732584, "energy": 86.630491, "activity_lines": [ 31.906667, 30.048182, 26.927952, 25.643613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.1, "volume": 1438074, "typical_volume": 2557713.15, "trend": 24.782333, "fair_value": 26.418205, "relative_strength": 22.299842, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.140029, "energy": 82.842811, "activity_lines": [ 32.256, 30.695636, 27.644238, 26.141204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.18, "volume": 7853845, "typical_volume": 2837135.15, "trend": 25.115333, "fair_value": 26.422885, "relative_strength": 21.72873, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.285053, "energy": 80.549311, "activity_lines": [ 32.772, 31.398727, 28.409714, 26.682989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }