{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a83aac2-c027-4df0-abd0-cc627f65b766", "symbol": "XCS6", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI China UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.52, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.601, "architecture_energy": 19.618, "architecture_maturity": 99.094, "architecture_confidence": 47.321, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.32, "rotation_up": 41.7, "upward_expansion": 23.49, "deceleration": 41.29, "rotation_down": 16.6, "downward_expansion": 55.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.402333, 18.043364, 18.215929, 18.466807 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.9175, "trend_reference": 18.939667, "distance_from_trend": -0.00117, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.432051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.151256, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.550014, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.075617, "excess_performance": -0.126852, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00117, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043644, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.151256, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057729, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1155, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046754, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.075617, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.358537, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18803, "relative_activity": 0.094208, "balance": 0.358537, "dry_up": 0.379177, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03195, "annualized_volatility": 0.189175, "from_high_reference": -0.148819, "from_low_reference": 0.138237 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.939667, "fair_value_reference": 16.432051, "structural_low": 16.620001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.019672, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.012628, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.156069, "worst_return": -0.125356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.053465, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.040459, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.153214, "worst_return": -0.137654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.091725, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.053102, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.108946, "worst_return": -0.195605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089651, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.177068, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12187, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.07305, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088053, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": 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17.418334, 17.867909, 18.369226, 18.772871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.8575, "volume": 29652, "typical_volume": 197783.95, "trend": 19.233, "fair_value": 16.338926, "relative_strength": -14.620563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.240379, "energy": 78.693155, "activity_lines": [ 17.492334, 17.794182, 18.288667, 18.679006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.715, "volume": 72125, "typical_volume": 198937.7, "trend": 19.146667, "fair_value": 16.362035, "relative_strength": -15.767381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.003078, "energy": 64.479628, "activity_lines": [ 17.539333, 17.719591, 18.205822, 18.58107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.940001, "volume": 156781, "typical_volume": 201656.8, "trend": 19.069, "fair_value": 16.378766, "relative_strength": -15.409688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.282805, "energy": 44.917749, "activity_lines": [ 17.696, 17.718091, 18.154096, 18.503221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.584999, "volume": 55010, "typical_volume": 201796.6, "trend": 18.997917, "fair_value": 16.401619, "relative_strength": -13.150397, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.372047, "energy": 21.744547, "activity_lines": [ 18.049333, 17.851773, 18.16756, 18.471995 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.9175, "volume": 18803, "typical_volume": 199589.45, "trend": 18.939667, "fair_value": 16.432051, "relative_strength": -11.550014, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.600528, "energy": 19.617658, "activity_lines": [ 18.402333, 18.043364, 18.215929, 18.466807 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }