{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a84603d-ad12-4bb4-b518-98059172085e", "symbol": "SAAM", "name": "SAAM Development Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.666, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.258, "architecture_energy": 31.353, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.815, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.13, "rotation_up": 21.65, "upward_expansion": 2.93, "deceleration": 50.67, "rotation_down": 50.64, "downward_expansion": 78.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.673333, 4.682545, 4.710476, 4.741161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.66, "trend_reference": 4.786667, "distance_from_trend": -0.026462, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.319685, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.262621, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.909895, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.041152, "excess_performance": -0.233477, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026462, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039199, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.262621, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004639, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209099, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050247, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041152, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 162800, "relative_activity": 0.987415, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 1.085823, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027072, "annualized_volatility": 0.052683, "from_high_reference": -0.202788, "from_low_reference": 0.629371 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.786667, "fair_value_reference": 6.319685, "structural_low": 3.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.008475, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.013122, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.123188, "worst_return": -0.101351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.016598, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.011697, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.26087, "worst_return": -0.099065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.048141, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.102648, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.152012, "worst_return": -0.173913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15942, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039683, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 4.68, "volume": 226100, "typical_volume": 224580.0, "trend": 4.851667, "fair_value": 6.371441, "relative_strength": -24.004143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.122864, "energy": 37.6761, "activity_lines": [ 4.692, 4.709091, 4.744286, 4.780473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.68, "volume": 236800, "typical_volume": 189765.0, "trend": 4.837667, "fair_value": 6.35971, "relative_strength": -24.018125, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.807059, "energy": 36.01384, "activity_lines": [ 4.685333, 4.701455, 4.735238, 4.769398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.68, "volume": 229600, "typical_volume": 167895.0, "trend": 4.820333, "fair_value": 6.346411, "relative_strength": -23.451655, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.641683, "energy": 37.169094, "activity_lines": [ 4.681333, 4.695273, 4.726952, 4.759226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.68, "volume": 86900, "typical_volume": 160710.0, "trend": 4.799667, "fair_value": 6.333112, "relative_strength": -21.811891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.888759, "energy": 30.982598, "activity_lines": [ 4.68, 4.690182, 4.719333, 4.750172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.66, "volume": 162800, "typical_volume": 164875.0, "trend": 4.786667, "fair_value": 6.319685, "relative_strength": -20.909895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.258243, "energy": 31.353488, "activity_lines": [ 4.673333, 4.682545, 4.710476, 4.741161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }