{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a8d7452-b686-45df-a039-ed430d38563f", "symbol": "RCKT", "name": "Rocket Pharmaceuticals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.049, "architecture_energy": 14.093, "architecture_maturity": 18.671, "architecture_confidence": 64.731, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.26, "rotation_up": 24.43, "upward_expansion": 18.71, "deceleration": 54.52, "rotation_down": 37.71, "downward_expansion": 59.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.39, 3.411818, 3.354, 3.464409 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.61, "trend_reference": 3.575, "distance_from_trend": 0.00979, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.403718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.708958, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.723037, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.142405, "excess_performance": -0.045049, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00979, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000187, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.708958, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027967, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09723, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048191, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142405, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.850745, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10667652, "relative_activity": 0.796405, "balance": 0.850745, "dry_up": 0.57797, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137545, "annualized_volatility": 0.805379, "from_high_reference": -0.337615, "from_low_reference": 0.426877 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.575, "fair_value_reference": 12.403718, "structural_low": 2.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.040096, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00017, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.420372, "worst_return": -0.256421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.033766, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.044167, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.547786, "worst_return": -0.381849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.223755, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.069255, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.347615, "worst_return": -0.56036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.096737, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.307255, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.649151, "worst_return": -0.643408, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.251599, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.29662, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077284, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.052985, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.162073, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025478, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.847092, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.177778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.054545, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 3.44, "volume": 7404089, "typical_volume": 14950149.05, "trend": 3.600333, "fair_value": 12.673205, "relative_strength": -11.104711, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.304811, "energy": 16.786603, "activity_lines": [ 3.614, 3.387091, 3.409143, 3.519892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.19, "volume": 6584132, "typical_volume": 14315841.6, "trend": 3.590667, "fair_value": 12.578077, "relative_strength": -15.965796, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.065588, "energy": 19.283263, "activity_lines": [ 3.491333, 3.374909, 3.373524, 3.493419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.11, "volume": 6311204, "typical_volume": 13874461.2, "trend": 3.579, "fair_value": 12.486474, "relative_strength": -18.266637, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.99768, "energy": 13.406898, "activity_lines": [ 3.352667, 3.349273, 3.336095, 3.462409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.61, "volume": 10667652, "typical_volume": 13394763.95, "trend": 3.575, "fair_value": 12.403718, "relative_strength": -9.723037, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.04866, "energy": 14.092695, "activity_lines": [ 3.39, 3.411818, 3.354, 3.464409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }