{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7a8ffe98-1ac8-45d4-828d-2e2cf39e8081", "symbol": "B61", "name": "Bukit Sembawang Estates Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 62.825, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.796, "architecture_energy": 43.888, "architecture_maturity": 14.215, "architecture_confidence": 86.483, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.46, "rotation_up": 17.77, "upward_expansion": 7.54, "deceleration": 43.74, "rotation_down": 60.59, "downward_expansion": 78.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.629213, 4.649044, 4.702695, 4.72573 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.54, "trend_reference": 4.792528, "distance_from_trend": -0.052692, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.776634, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202129, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.916617, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.099206, "excess_performance": -0.254041, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052692, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011082, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.202129, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111085, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169166, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175364, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.099206, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.611111, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 829100, "relative_activity": 2.102874, "balance": 0.611111, "dry_up": 1.460801, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031931, "annualized_volatility": 0.178274, "from_high_reference": -0.135238, "from_low_reference": 0.112745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.792528, "fair_value_reference": 3.776634, "structural_low": 4.46, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.007371, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.012688, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.089552, "worst_return": -0.089286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.00978, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.024222, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.271642, "worst_return": -0.108696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008069, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008988, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.312057, "worst_return": -0.129199, 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"close": 4.488548, "volume": 234600, "typical_volume": 422430.0, "trend": 4.814285, "fair_value": 3.744185, "relative_strength": -12.085877, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.846999, "energy": 68.648612, "activity_lines": [ 4.658183, 4.725736, 4.738243, 4.775347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.775051, "volume": 742500, "typical_volume": 433365.0, "trend": 4.815453, "fair_value": 3.751452, "relative_strength": -10.108155, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.242901, "energy": 50.021425, "activity_lines": [ 4.68263, 4.728681, 4.740397, 4.772816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.6318, "volume": 642800, "typical_volume": 437105.0, "trend": 4.809847, "fair_value": 3.757629, "relative_strength": -13.179979, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.081601, "energy": 54.171974, "activity_lines": [ 4.661657, 4.704579, 4.730266, 4.760967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.62225, "volume": 329800, "typical_volume": 384140.0, "trend": 4.804588, "fair_value": 3.763916, "relative_strength": -14.29574, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.891597, "energy": 55.277691, "activity_lines": [ 4.644047, 4.682526, 4.720835, 4.748864 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.7082, "volume": 502100, "typical_volume": 375100.0, "trend": 4.802195, "fair_value": 3.770756, "relative_strength": -13.101799, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.261424, "energy": 26.951715, "activity_lines": [ 4.66427, 4.679333, 4.720008, 4.742646 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.54, "volume": 829100, "typical_volume": 394270.0, "trend": 4.792528, "fair_value": 3.776634, "relative_strength": -16.916617, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.796134, "energy": 43.887691, "activity_lines": [ 4.629213, 4.649044, 4.702695, 4.72573 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }